7 October 2018 — 1600 mdt

What Democrats must do now that Kavanaugh is on the court, &
There’s a significant possibility Initiative 185 may fail

How Democrats can recover from being steamrollered on SCOTUS. Brett Kavanaugh is now Justice Kavanaugh. He won’t be removed from the U.S. Supreme Court through impeachment, and the wounds to his reputation may never fully heal. Democrats can offset Kavanaugh’s and Gorsouch’s impact on the court by adding at least two new justices to the court — but to do that, Democrats must win the White House and working majorities in both houses of Congress. Therefore, it’s time for outraged progressives to stash the “Kava-No!” signs, knock off the rallies and dumbass sit-ins, and bust their behinds getting Democrats, no matter how flawed, elected. There’s no other way of getting even, or getting justice.

Initiative 185 may be in significant trouble. During 6–16 September, AARP (the American Association for Retired Persons) polled Montanans on I-185, which would extend expanded Medicaid and raise taxes on tobacco products. The result: 47 percent for I-185, 41 percent against, 11 percent undecided. The poll sampled 950 likely voters. The nominal margin of error is ≈ 3.2 percent, voters 50 and older were oversampled (724), making the MOE trickier to calculate. Assume wide error bars.

A poll conducted for CBS news during 10–14 September found strong support for covering pre-existing conditions and holding down health care costs, but considerably less support for covering everyone.

Meanwhile, Mike Dennison reports the Tobacco Boyz have raised $12.4 million to shoot down the initiative, while the hospitals backing I-185 have raised $4.8 million. Television stations and ad agencies are raking in the money, as are printers and direct mailing firms.

Those polls were conducted a month ago, before the anti-I-185 campaign unleashed its full, take no prisoners, attack on the initiative.

Thus far, I’ve received five glossy 4-color pieces lying and dissembling about the initiative. Although shamelessly mendacious, these propaganda pieces are effective — and as far as I can tell, Healthy Montana, the organization fronting for the hospitals, has done very little to counter them.

Facing the powerful headwinds of a massive, mendacious, and effective, opposition campaign; with only a six-point lead; with support under 50 percent; with voters more concerned about containing costs than about covering everyone, I-185 is in trouble.

That means Montana is in trouble.

If I-185 fails, almost 100,000 Montanans will lose their health insurance, and Montana will lose $500 million a year in federal funds. A defeat ensures more lung cancers and other tobacco related ailments, and fewer resources to help people stop smoking and/or mitigate the consequences of smoking; more deaths and suffering from treatment delayed or denied; more medical bankruptcies.

In my opinion, it’s more important to get I-185 passed than to get Kathleen Williams elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.