24 October 2018 — 1604 mdt
Flathead Memo now rates Tester v. Rosendale
U.S. Senate election as leans Democratic
Let’s start with the seven polls conducted from 6 September through 13 October. Tester leads by an average of 4.7 points, 48.0 to 43.3 percent. Although the lead is narrow, Tester leads in six of the seven polls, and ties with Rosendale in the other. Rosendale isn’t closing the gap, and time is running out.
Tester is also, in my judgment, beginning to profit from Rosendale’s promises to be President Trump’s man in Montana. Tester, to the fury of more than a few Democrats, presents himself as a de facto alpha male independent, a strong farmer beholding only to the voters of Montana. But in doing so, he exposes the limits of his opponent’s strategy marching in lockstep with our bodyslamming approving Commander in Chief.
Rosendale pledges fealty to Trump. His highest loyalty is to the person of the President, not to the people of his nation and the state he seeks to represent. That doesn’t sit well with voters in Montana, who want to be represented by someone loyal to the nation and the Constitution, someone who will bark on their behalf, not lick the palm of a mendacious authoritarian.
As long as Tester remains strong and appears independent, and isn’t knocked off the campaign trail by a stroke or heart attack, I don’t think he’ll be brought down by false charges that he supports open borders and unlimited immigration, lacks the blessing of the National Rifle Association, or is guilty of any of the other sins with which the Republicans charge him.
I think he’ll win with 46 to 50 percent of the vote.
Other ratings
FiveThirtyEight rates Tester v. Rosendale as likely Democratic, with probabilities of winning ranging from 82.9 to 86.7 percent, and a vote share of 52.0 to 52.6 percent.
J.M. Brown at The Western Word expects Tester to win with at least 50 percent of the vote.
Larry Sabato rates Tester v. Rosendale as leans Democratic. Scroll down for the table.
The Cook Political Report rates Tester v. Rosendale as a toss-up.
Real Clear Politics rates Tester v. Rosendale as a toss-up.