6 September 2018 — 1836 mdt

Tester’s in trouble, Kavanaugh, and water bottling chutzpah

President Trump speaks in Billings this evening, hoping to win votes for Matt Rosendale and to back Sen. Tester into a corner on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Tester, reports the Bozeman Daily Chronicle, is running a television ad reminding voters that Trump has signed legislation that Tester sponsored.

Trump, who still enjoys a net favorability rating in Montana, will argue that whatever Tester does to mollify Republicans, Rosendale will do better. Rosendale, in his awkward way, will try to make the election a referendum on Trump.

In my judgment, Tester’s in a bit of trouble. RealClearPolitics rates Tester v. Rosendale a toss-up. Larry Sabato says the race leans Democratic, the partisan RSCC poll reporting Rosendale with a two-point lead notwithstanding. I rate the contest a toss-up.

Kavanaugh will be confirmed

This nomination was settled on 8 November 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump and the Republican Party retained control of both houses of Congress. The GOP has the votes to confirm Kavanaugh, and he will be confirmed even without votes from Democrats, such as Joe Donnelly and Heidi Heitkamp, running for re-election in red states. Therefore, unless somebody shoots Kavanaugh, he’ll replace Kennedy on the U.S. Supreme Court, and eventually vote to overturn or at least severely curtail Roe V. Wade and affirmative action.

What we saw today was the Democratic Party posturing to its constituencies, assembling a record of Kavanaugh’s alleged evils for future use. Many factions of the party loath Kavanaugh to the extent they’re incapable of noticing or admitting that his confirmation is assured. They’re demanding that Democratic members of the senate mount, as proof of ideological loyalty and courage, the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade. That’s why Corey Booker, et al, are grandstanding. If you’re a Democrat, it’s okay to bang the drum and cheer for Booker, et al, but don’t fool yourself into believing that sound and fury will lead to the defeat of Kavanaugh’s nomination.

If Democrats are to prevent more Kavanaughs from joining the court, and to roll back some of the mischief that a hard right court will commit, they have to start winning elections at every level of government.

Voters, water bottlers, and Flathead’s county government

On 5 June, the Flathead’s voters, by a convincing margin, approved a zoning change designed to prevent a water bottling plant from being operated down in the farm country near Egan Slough. Now reports the InterLake, the plant is operating, bottling water, and behaving as though the election never occurred. Its owners and the county’s commissioners are arguing that the plant was grandfathered-in, and therefore not affected by the vote.

This forces the adjacent landowners back to court, and that, I suspect, is the intention. Even if the landowners prevail, and they probably will, they’ll spend a lot of time and money doing it, and suffer more than a little heartburn during the process. Thus, the Flathead’s elected officials are using their powers to punish citizens for having the temerity to disagree with officialdom. One way Flathead voters can lodge a protest at this highhandedness is by voting for Tom Clark for county commissioner.