14 September 2018 — 0712 mdt

Evacuation is not always better than sheltering in place

Hurricane Florence made landfall in the Carolinas overnight. I have family and friends up and down the east coast, but not next to the ocean, fortunately, so I’ve been following the storm’s progress. Some of my kin may get wet, but mostly they’ll be lighting candles and dealing with other inconveniences. I doubt any needed to evacuate.

Not everyone needs to evacuate, or can. Evacuation is expensive, and even if you return to a relatively undamaged neighborhood, you may return to a looted one. At the Advanced Hindsight blog, Brad Swain has a thoughtful paper on why some people don’t evacuate.

My personal experience with hurricanes, incidentally, dates to September, 1965, when Betsy roared up the Gulf of Mexico, slamming into and flooding New Orleans. I was a college freshman in Houston, which received heavy rain and some wind. When there was still a chance Betsy could hit Houston, we were told stay in our dormitory and keep away from the windows.

My personal inclination is to stock up on food, water, and other supplies, and ride out the storm or disaster unless my independent assessment of the situation convinces me that I’ll be washed or blown away, or burned out. I think public officials and emergency managers sometimes are too quick to recommend evacuation.