17 September 2018 — 1518 mdt

CBS News poll reports Tester leads Rosendale by two points

A poll (PDF) conducted by yougov.com last week for CBS News reports Sen. Jon Tester is leading Matt Rosendale 47–45 percent with five percent undecided and three percent favoring “someone else.”

PDF for printing

The online poll sampled 453 registered voters and has a margin of error of 5.2 percent. Although the two-point difference is within the margin of error, there’s a 66 percent probability that Tester is leading Rosendale.

A late August poll commissioned by the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, and conducted before President Trump’s 6 September Billings rally for Rosendale, had Rosendale leading tester by two points.

PDF for printing

The poll reports President Trump’s net popularity in Montana is six percent (53–47). That’s essentially unchanged from Morning Consult’s July finding of a five percent net popularity. Another yougov.com poll conducted in September reported Trump’s net national approval rating is minus five percent among registered voters. Other polls (see FiveThirtyEight’s list) report his popularity is deeper under water.

The poll did contain some good news for Rosendale:

On health care, the only issue on which voters think Tester is better, there was, at least to me, a surprising (and depressing) paucity of support for making sure everyone is covered:

And Montanans, by a wide margin, disapprove of the Affordable Care Act:

Montanans think Democrats favor racial minorities

This finding, which quantifies the price the Democratic Party pays for practicing identity politics, is striking, and goes a considerable distance toward explaining why Montana is leaning more and more to the right:

Why I rate Tester v. Rosendale a toss-up

1. The average of the last two polls is 46–46 percent, a tie.
2. Tester is considered better on health care, but Montanans have a net negative attitude on the Affordable Care Act.
3. And Rosendale is considered better on immigration, crime, and guns.
4. Tester probably is considered better on public lands.
5. Montanans, who are mostly white, think Democrats favor racial minorities.
6. President Trump still has a positive net approval rating in Montana.

These factors are why a popular two-term incumbent may not be re-elected on 6 November. Matt Rosendale’s political résumé is much thinner than Jon Tester’s, but that weakness is offset by the strength of his determination to vote as Trump demands because according to the CBS News poll, national issues are more than twice as important to Montanans as are local issues: