24 September 2018 — 1807 mdt

Politico rates Williams v. Gianforte as “Likely Republican”

Politico rates Rep. Greg Gianforte as the likely winner of the election for Montana’s sole seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. A Democrat has not won the seat since Pat Williams won by a plurality in 1994.

Gianforte’s Democratic opponent, former state representative Kathleen Williams (Bozeman), led Gianforte 49–43 percent in a Gravis poll conducted shortly after the primary in June. In the same poll, Sen. Jon Tester led his Republican opponent, Matt Rosendale, 51–44 percent. Since then, the distance between Tester and Rosendale has vanished. Although no credible polling on Williams v. Gianforte has, to my knowledge, been released, it’s reasonable to suppose that this election also has tightened.

No Democratic U.S. House candidate since Pat Williams has achieved funding parity with his or her Republican opponent. Nancy Keenan and Rob Quist came the closest. I believe Williams must raise at least as much money as Gianforte, and probably more, to have a chance of defeating him.

Williams, reports the Missoula Current, received the endorsement of Montana Native Vote. This helps her, although the endorsement is hardly a surprise.

Flathead Memo has endorsed Williams. I rate the contest as leans Republican.