26 September 2018 — 2215 mdt
Gravis poll contains good news for Jon Tester,
mostly bad news for Kathleen Williams
A poll conducted by Gravis Marketing last week reports Sen. Jon Tester is leading his Republican challenger, Montana State Auditor Matt Rosendale, by four points, 49 to 45 percent. The same poll reports Rep. Greg Gianforte is leading his Democratic challenger, former state legislator Kathleen Williams, by nine points, 51 to 42 percent. The probability that Tester has a ballot lead is 86 percent; that Gianforte has a ballot leader, 99 percent.
The poll sampled 710 likely voters using interactive voice technology (robocalls) and a panel for cell phone users. FiveThirtyEight gives Gravis a C+ rating, down from a B rating in June.
A poll Gravis conducted just after the primary in June reported Tester leading Rosendale 52 to 44 percent — and Williams leading Gianforte 49 to 43 percent.
Below, time series plots of the polls for the two campaigns, followed by a breakdown of each candidate’s support by age and sex.
Tester leads Rosendale among women and voters under 50. Rosendale leads among men and voters over 50. Williams leads among women, although not by as much as Tester does. Gianforte leads among all age groups, and has an astonishing 28.1 percent lead among men, almost three times Rosendale’s lead among men.
Two factors — gun control, and gender identity politics — may account for Williams’ poor showing among men. Her support for reasonable limits on the ownership of weapons designed for killing people probably is being interpreted as an attack on the right and ability of men to protect themselves and their families. During her primary campaign, she argued it was time for a woman to represent Montana in Congress, a pitch calculated to appeal to women, especially as she was the only woman in the primary field (Lynda Moss suspended her campaign in March, although she remained on the ballot).
Williams won the primary not because she pressed the flesh in the boondocks (Heenan and Keir did that, too) but because she emphasized gender identity and gun control, two themes highly popular with Democratic primary voters. But in doing so, I believe she alienated many of Montana’s men.
I suspect Williams also is struggling to raise enough money to keep her campaign in high gear.
The Gravis poll will not help Williams raise money. And it may dispirit her campaign’s staff and volunteers.