29 September 2018 — 1218 mdt

AARP poll

Yesterday, the American Association for Retired People released a poll (available at FiveThirtyEight) reporting Jon Tester leading Matt Rosendale by seven points, 50 to 43 percent, and Greg Gianforte leading Kathleen Williams by a single point, 46 to 45 percent. The sample was 950 likely voters, and the nominal MOE is 3.2 percent, but voters aged 50 and older were oversampled, so determining the true margin of error is a bit tricky. The Berenson Strategy Group conducted the poll during 6–16 September.

I’m uneasy with this poll, so I’m going to learn more about it this weekend and report back to you on Monday.