3 April 2019 — 1817 mdt
Kathleen Williams, Tom Winter, & Al Olszewski
Updated. Montana’s hustings are heating up. Yesterday, State Rep. Tom Winter (D-Missoula, HD-96) announced he’s running for Montana’s sole seat U.S. House of Representatives. Today, State Sen. Al Olszewski (R-Kalispell, SD-6) announced he’s running for governor. And Friday, in Billings, former State Rep. Kathleen Williams, who lost the U.S. House election to Greg Gianforte, is announcing she’s a candidate for an undisclosed office.
Seven statewide partisan political offices will be on the ballot in 2020: two federal (U.S. Senator, U.S. Representative), and five state (Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor, and Office of Public Instruction.) Offices we know will be open are Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State; Auditor, if Matt Rosendale runs for the U.S. House; U.S. Representative, if Greg Gianforte runs for Governor. Only OPI’s Elsie Arntzen and U.S. Senator Steve Daines are likely to seek re-election.
Today, a look at Winter, Williams, and Olszewski.
Tom Winter
Winter, a 32-year-old freshman legislator, narrowly unseated an incumbent Republican in a Missoula swing district, knocking on thousands of doors and raising thousands of dollars. He exudes the confidence, optimism, and energy of youth, and seems quick on his feet. Bloggers Nathen Kostad and Greg Strandberg have posted favorable comments on his candidacy.
Although he’s in the MT House’s minority caucus, two of his bills have been passed. Others, including his bill to legalize recreational marijuana, died in committee.
Winter is known in his legislative district, and in adjacent districts, but virtually unknown in, probably, 90 percent of Montana’s legislative districts. He begins with low statewide name recognition, and without experience in running for statewide office. Those are not insurmountable obstacles to winning, but they are obstacles.
Al Olszewski, MD
Olszeewski joins declared Corey Stapleton, a former legislator and current Montana Secretary of State, Montana Attorney General Tim Fox, and quite possibly U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte, in a race that could be won by a weak plurality.
Olszewski was GOP gubernatorial candidate’s Jim Lynch’s running mate in the 2012 Republican primary. They lost by 38,000 votes to Rick Hill and Jon Sonju. In 2018, he finished 23,000 votes behind Matt Rosendale in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. Five months later, Rosendale lost to incumbent Democrat Jon Tester.
An orthopedic surgeon with five children, Olszewski is a determined opponent of abortion and a skeptic of government involvement in health care.
Olszewski is a dogged campaigner, but has yet to demonstrate the ability to raise millions of dollars or build the requisite excitement among voters. The primary gives him a bully pulpit for his ideas, but he’s not likely to win the nomination for governor.
Kathleen Williams
Updated. Kicking off her campaign in Billings means she’s running for one of five offices: Governor, MT Sec State, or MT Auditor; U.S. Representative, or U.S. Senator. Otherwise, she’d be back in Bozeman announcing for the legislature or for the Public Service Commission seat being vacated by termed-out Roger Koopman.
In 2018, Williams tried to unseat fellow Bozemanite U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte. Her gender identity campaign narrowly prevailed in a crowded primary, but in the general election she lost the two-party vote by approximately 23,000 votes, a margin of 4.8 percent.
She demonstrated respectable fundraising ability, but may have alienated men with her “It’s time to elect a woman” theme. Not all of her television commercials were strong. She presented herself as the caregiver, which may have made her seem weak compared to Gianforte’s breadwinner image. And on issues, she was much closer to Hillary Clinton than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, refusing to endorse single-payer healthcare.
She ran behind U.S. Sen. Jon Tester in most demographic categories. In the table below, I’ve cherry-picked several findings from the Montana State University post-election survey. In the graph below, I’ve plotted her, and Tester’s, share of the two-party vote in Montana’s counties.
No matter which office she seeks, she’ll be the favorite in the Democratic primary because of the advantages that attend gender identity campaigns in that party. She has a substantial following among Democratic activists, some of whom are posting on social media pledges of their blind allegience to her whatever she does. She may not, however, be the strongest general election Democrat in a primary field. She’s not seeking to replace Koopman on the Public Service Commission, but that position might be the best fit for her.
Unless Williams can find a way to improve her performance in Montana’s rural, less well educated, areas, especially in eastern Montana, where Tester comes across as a good old dirt farmer, but she seems more the city slicker, she’ll fall short again.