4 April 2019 — 1349 mdt

Joe Biden and the ladies, Trump’s EC lead, legislative notes

Today’s post will be brief as Flathead Memo’s editor and janitor needs time to complete his semi-monthly grocery buying expedition, a task made more complicated, exasperating, and expensive, by the need to conform to a low protein, sodium, and potassium, diet. It’s also a low taste diet. Today’s objectives include finding safe and tasty French dressing and tomato based spaghetti sauce. That may prove to be mission impossible. I have little appetite for the experience.

Joe Biden and the ladies

At least seven women have accused Joe Biden of touching them “inappropriately.” Anyone who thinks the timing of these accusations is unrelated to his favorable polling numbers and his dithering over whether to run for President again is being willfully blind. Supporters of other Democratic candidates are behind this bottom-feeding flurry of “he was a dirty old man” charges. They’re trying to blacken his reputation for decency.

Democrats are destroying good men, and their party, with these politically weaponized #metoo maulings. They’re also handing a sword to Trump and the Republicans. That’s neither fair nor smart.

Trump’s electoral college lead

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball just published a fascinating map that should scare the bejesus out of Democrats. Republicans lead in states totaling 248 electoral votes, Democrats lead in states totaling 244 EC votes, and four states totaling 46 EC votes are toss-ups. Here’s the map, colors modified so that the EC numbers are visible, but be sure to read the full post.

This is why Democrats must pursue an electoral college strategy to win the White House. A popular vote majority is not enough.

Montana Legislature

Medicaid. Tomorrow’s MT Senate hearing on HB-658, the bill that would extend expanded Medicaid begins at 0800. The bill passed the MT House 61–37 last week.

There are three fiscal notes. The first estimated that the bill’s work and work reporting requirements could result in up to half of the 96,000 Montanans on the program losing their health insurance. The corrected version of the second note estimates that only four percent — that’s still almost 4,000 — are likely to be kicked off the program.

What accounts for that difference in estimates? Politics, probably. The first note was published while in-committee amendments to HB-658 were being discussed, and there was the possibility that dire predictions could soften the bill. The second note was published after the bill was amended, improvements were no longer possible, and passage became the political imperative. I suspect the first note was a lot closer to the truth.

Good bills die in bad committees. At The Montana Post, Pete Talbot has a round-up of bills that Republicans have killed in committee. The bills die quiet deaths in part because there are so few reporters covering the legislative session. Montana’s legislative sessions are especially difficult to cover comprehensively because so much happens in such a short time. That’s one reason why the people who hate government love short sessions: it’s easier to commit mischief in darkness than in sunlight.