23 January 2019 — 2200 mst
Democrats need an Electoral College
strategy to defeat Trump in 2020
Like the minor characters in the opening scenes of a Hitchcock thriller, or a Shakespearean drama, light to middleweight Democrats are announcing their candidacies for the 2020 Democratic nomination for President. Some, Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Buttigieg for example, appear to be auditioning for the nomination for Vice President. Others are running to raise their political visibility for a run for a different office or to call attention to an issue.
And some, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris among them, are making a serious run at the Presidency. So is Kristen Gillibrand, the misandrist who, with Harris’ enthusiastic help, led the lynching of Al Franken. In a few weeks or months, they’ll be joined by genuine heavyweight candidates.
Could a Democrat defeat Donald Trump in 2020? Yes — but it won’t be easy. Trump doesn’t need a popular majority to win re-election. He needs only a majority in the Electoral College.
That’s the first lesson for Democrats. They must run a campaign to win the Electoral College. That requires not reprising Hillary Clinton’s strategy of writing off white working class voters as deplorable and irredeemable racists, and compensating by running up huge majorities in California, New York, and Massachusettes.
The second lesson is that the whole of a party composed of disparate, self-centered, identity groups is less than the sum of those identity groups. Identities divide. Ideas unite. The Democratic Party’s babble of identity caucuses must subordinate their individual identities to their shared identity of being Americans. Can the Democratic Party do that? I have my doubts.
The third lesson is that Democrats must recognize that nominating a woman probably costs two to three percent in the popular vote. As Michelle Goldberg reported in the New York Times, research supports that conclusion. Polling by Pew reveals that on issues of national security, men have a 38 percent advantage. Those are facts that must be faced by Democrats who want a woman to defeat Donald Trump to “make history,” to teach him a lesson, and to avenge Hillary Clinton’s defeat.
My personal opinion? I don’t believe the nation is ready to elect a woman as President, and that it would be political malpractice for the Democratic Party to nominate a woman. That’s stone sober analysis, not sexism.
The fourth lesson is that Democrats must run on economic reform, universal health care, environmental protection, and not get bogged down in arguments over a multitude of social issues.
The final lesson? Nominate a person with a sunny disposition who inspires our better angles and offers hope. If Democrats nominate another arrogant, “I’m going to make personal history,” candidate who admonishes everyone not to expect too much, not to get their hopes up, that candidate will lose to Donald Trump.
Incidentally, before climbing on Kamala Harris’ bandwagon, be sure to read Neil Buchanan’s report on her worrisome behavior as a prosecutor.