12 July 2019 — 1824 mdt
Trump’s net approval rating in Montana remains above water
Nationwide, as tracked by FiveThirtyEight, President Trump’s net approval rating is underwater — approximately ten points at present — as it has been for his entire presidency. That’s not surprising given he lost the popular vote by almost three million votes.
But in Montana, Trump remains more popular than not, although not as popular now as at the beginning of his presidency. Morning Consult’s latest tracking poll reports Trump’s net approval rating in Montana is plus seven. Here’s a graph of his net approval under the Big Sky and from sea to shining sea:
Trump’s continuing popularity in Montana explains why Steve Daines has glued himself to Trump’s coattails, why Tim Fox is a shameless drumbeater for Trump’s great wall on the Mexican border, and why Democrats will have a difficult time winning statewide partisan elections in Montana.
What accounts for his continued popularity in Montana? That’s a question for which I don’t have an answer. Trump’s net approval remains above water in other geographically large, sparsely populated, states such as Wyoming, Kansas, and the Dakotas, especially in the rural areas where neighbors are few and distant, and the level of educational attainment is well below the national average. These circumstances can foster (a) an exaggerated sense of self-sufficiency that manifests itself in a self-righteous hostility to government as a social and economic equalizer that helps the less fortunate, and (b) a deep seated, visceral, often inchoate, suspicion, fear, and resentment, of urban elites; of city slickers. I suspect that Trump’s appeal to rural America comes not from his policies, but from his style, from his disdain for snobs and elites, from his gleeful flipping his middle finger at sophistication and arrogance.