11 May 2019 — 1407 mdt

Steve Bullock’s formal announcement that he’s running for
President is imminent — what are his odds of winning?

It’s no secret that Governor of Montana Steve Bullock looks in the mirror and see the next President of the United States. He’s spent at least the last year laying the groundwork for a campaign for the Democratic nomination, raising money, visiting Iowa, elevating his national profile, and in recent weeks, traveling with a private videography crew to acquire footage of himself appearing Presidential.

Now, reports The Hill, he’s releasing teaser videos as a ramp-up to formally announcing his candidacy, which I suspect will happen next week.

What are his chances of winning the nomination? And if he wins it, what are his chances of defeating President Trump. At this point, I’d say, low for the former, even for the latter.

He has more going for him than many might realize:

• Unlike some of the people vying for the Democratic nomination, he has a credible claim to being Presidential material: a two-term governor of a red state whose willingness to veto extreme legislation has kept the wackadoodle caucus of the Republican Party from turning Montana into Alabama or South Carolina.


• He survived the John Walsh debacle in his first term, demonstrating a political resilience that no candidate should be without.


• He treats the white working class with respect, an asset in the rust belt states a Democrat must win.


• He hasn’t boxed himself in with calls to impeach Trump, embraced calls for reparations to atone for slavery, or argued as a matter of principle that axe murderers in the hoosegow should have the right to vote.


• Affable, in his early fifties, and in robust good health, he’s of the right age and temperament to draw a favorable contrast with the surly septuagenarian character assassin now occupying the White House.


• His “come, let us cross the aisle and reason together” paean to compromise and centrism may appeal to the legions of conflict averse Democrats who quaver at confrontation and who believe that compromise is an intrinsic, not an instrumental, good.

All those things would help him in the general election. But they may not be assets for winning the nomination of an identity politics ravaged political party.

And it doesn’t help that compared to his fellow seekers of the nomination, he’s getting a late start.

His best chance to stand out from the pack is to perform well in the Democratic debates this summer, but he may not have enough time to drum up the donations and polling results he needs to qualify for the debate. At this point, FiveThirtyEight reports, self-help author Marianne Williamson, a New Age guru I cannot take seriously, neither as a guru nor as President, seems to have earned a place on the debate stages for June and July.

Montanans can help Bullock meet the donor threshold for this summer’s debates by sending him a small check — one to five bucks is enough — once he announces formally.

Will Bullock eventually shut down his Presidential campaign and run for the U.S. Senate seat now occupied by Steve Daines? Some Democrats think so, and hope so. I won’t dismiss the possibility, but I doubt he will. My sense is that he’s finished with Montana politics. If he doesn’t end up in a high level position in a Democratic administration, I think he’ll take a position with a high powered coastal law firm, or a prestigious nonprofit, and limit his time in Montana to vacations here.