26 September 2019 — 1706 mdt
Enrollment at the University of Montana declines — again
Enrollment at the University of Montana in Missoula, which declined by 33.5 percent from 2011 to 2018, is down approximately five percent from last year, according to the Missoulian. At Montana State University in Bozeman, enrollment remains at a near record high.
I’m increasingly of the opinion that UM’s decline and MSU’s rise are in large measure a function of the economic and population growth in the Gallatin, a technology oriented, economically upscale, area with scenery every bit as spectacular as Missoula’s, and a sunnier climate. It’s a nice place to live, and people are moving there faster than they’re moving to Missoula.
Chart 1 displays the population growth of Montana, Missoula, and the Gallatin, from 1970 to 2018 using U.S. Census Bureau data. Clearly, Missoula and the Gallatin are growing faster than Montana, and Gallatin County is growing faster than Missoula County.
Chart 2 starts at 2010, and uses the 2010 to 2018 population values to project the population to 2030. Sometime between 2020 and 2025, the Gallatin will overtake Missoula, become Montana’s second largest county.
A caveat. This is an exercise in crude curve fitting, not an example of population modeling. Its premise is that tomorrow will be just like yesterday but bigger. That’s possible, but not all that probable.
Nevertheless, although Missoula is growing, it’s not growing as fast as the Gallatin and Bozeman. I think that’s probably a major factor in the University of Montana’s tremendous loss in enrollment and loss of its status as Montana’s flagship university.
I doubt that the University of Montana will regain parity with Montana State University ever again.