3 January 2020 — 0813 mst
Meet the Big Sky Purplemander — a devious delight of
devilish districting that just might win bipartisan support
If Montana secures a second seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, could the communities of De Borgia, Troy, Kalispell, Plentywood, Ekalaka, Billings, and Gardiner, all end up in the same Congressional district?
Yes — and the question is not mere speculation.
My sources advise me that Democratic heavyweights in the blue polygon of Helena, Great Falls, Bozeman, Butte, and Missoula, are seriously considering lobbying Montana’s redistricting commission, which may lean Democratic, to draw one deep red Republican district, and one bluish Democratic district, rather than drawing two balanced, competitive, districts that could both fall to the Republicans in a red tide election.
Would Montana’s Republicans endorse such a scheme? At first blush that seems unlikely, but they might if they conclude that Montana’s drift to the right will reverse to the left early in this decade. A guarantee of half a loaf might be considered a better deal than equal odd of winning or losing both districts.
Is such a purplemander a practical possibility? You bet it is. Using a quick and dirty county level projection of Montana’s population to 1 April 2020, the conclusion of this year’s Census, I found a combination of 13 contiguous southwest Montana counties comprising half the state’s population, and 21 percent of the state’s area, that produced pluralities for Steve Bullock in 2016, and for Jon Tester and Kathleen Williams in 3018. I’ve named this district Azul Montana, and its Republican counterpart, Rojo Montana.
Here’s the map, followed by a summary table of the partisan breakdown.
Seven of Montana’s eight Tribal Nations (Indian Reservations) lie entirely within Rojo Montana, as do edges of the Flathead Reservation, which is mostly in Azul Montana. The Native American vote leans heavily Democratic. Whether the Tribal Nations would thank the Democratic Party for consigning them to Rojo Montana and the likes of Matt Rosendale or Corey Stapleton may be an interesting question.
Another interesting question is whether the person representing Rojo Montana would enjoy representing the nation’s second largest in area Congressional district. Would a Democratically controlled U.S. House allocate extra money for travel and field offices in Rojo Montana?
If Montana does gain second seat, the new districts may be a Big Sky Purplemander. Technically, with block level Census data and sophisticated mapping software, creating a purplemander would be easier than one-stroking a half-inch putt. Politically, approving a purplemander might be a bit more difficult. But the practical aspects notwithstanding, a Big Sky Purplemander is not just bar talk among Democratic operatives. It’s a real possibility.