11 July 2020 — 1451 mdt
29 July 2020 — 1226 mdt
Canceling a county fair is like canceling Christmas
Will the Northwest Montana Fair
become a Covid super spreader event?
Updated and corrected, 29 July. Note to readers. This updated and corrected post will be followed by a post on the cost of canceling the fair, and the probability that mitigation measures will succeed. My thanks to fair manager Mark Campbell for providing additional information on the fair. He and his colleagues are working hard to make the fair happen. I disagree with their conclusions, but doubt not for a second their sincerity and diligence.
I think there’s a high probability it will — and that holding the fair during the worst pandemic in a century, efforts to mitigate exposure to the virus notwithstanding, is not a risk worth taking.
The Flathead County Fair Commission disagrees. On 9 July it voted unanimously hold the fair and rodeo, a popular, profitable, and culturally significant, event, especially among rural and agricultural communities. As a concession to the pandemic, reports the Flathead Beacon, certain risk reduction measures will be in place:
Fair officials have been working extensively with public health agencies to determine the best way to safely put on the 119th annual event. The fair will be following all guidelines set by the Flathead City County Health Department, the state of Montana and the Center for Disease Control.
“Fair staff and officials will continue to collaborate with these expert partners, watch for any new developments around COVID-19 that would impact the fair operation, and make modifications accordingly, Campbell said.
In Phase 2 of the state’s reopening plan, gatherings of more than 50 people are allowed as long as social distancing measures are in place. All aspects of the fair, including arena events, will be modified to allow for social distancing and the use of masks will be strongly recommended for visitors, vendors and exhibitors.
Update, 29 July. On 15 July, four days after this was post was written, Gov. Bullock issued a mask-up directive for Montana counties with four or more active Covid-19 cases. That makes Flathead County a mandatory mask-up county, and the fair’s administrators now say masks will be mandatory. That's the right policy. The extent to which fairgoers will mask-up is another matter.
By only recommending wearing masks, the fair commission implicity condones not wearing a mask and deems going barefaced an acceptable behavior. But, as Whitefish physician Suzanne Daniell Hilder explains in today’s Flathead Beacon, going barefaced is not acceptable:
Because Montanans have not embraced safe social distancing, cases are surging. As a result, masks should be mandated in public places. The single most impactful measure to reduce viral spreading is masking. We are familiar with other regulations such as not driving while intoxicated or impaired, and completing a hunter safety course. These regulations protect us and our loved ones from ourselves. Masking is no different.
As the grandson of a former chairman of a midwestern county board fair, I’m acutely aware of the allure and importance of these late summer gathering celebrating and advertising agriculture and rural culture. After working hard for a year raising cows and other animals, farm children are eager to display their accomplishments in the fair’s livestock barns and to vie for blue ribbons and other awards. Not holding a fair would bring tears to their eyes, and to the eyes of the members of the fair board. It would be like canceling Christmas, perhaps worse.
But the cultural and economic importance of the Northwest Montana Fair does not outweigh the importance of avoiding activities that are tailor made for spreading the SARS-cov-2 virus. The fair commission’s mitigation measures are voluntary — and because they are voluntary, they are weak and not likely to be observed. Adopting them was as much a cover-our-butts operation as an attempt to do the right thing.
Correction, 29 July. I wrongly asserted that all of the fair’s mitigation measures were voluntary. I was thinking of masking-up, which was voluntary when I wrote the post, but failed to make that clear. As fair manager Mark Campbell advised me, virtually all mitigation measures are required by the county’s public health authorities. My apologies to Campbell, the fair board, and all others involved.
If the fair is held, barefaced attendees not observing social distancing will introduce each other to Mr. Covid, shake hands with him, and two weeks later, approximately the time students return to schools, find their names added to the list of Covid-19 positive Montanans. Some will infect family members and friends. Some will become extremely ill. Some may be hospitalized. Some may die.
That’s too high a price to pay for holding a popular but, in the final analysis, optional event. The fair commission, its sincere and good intentions notwithstanding, has made a huge mistake. The fair may well become a super spreader event. It should be canceled. Pronto.