3 June 2020 — 0348mdt

Preliminary election notes

Turnout. Yesterday’s primary turnout was a record for a Montana presidential election. I doubt that holding the election by mail ballot caused the the record turnout. Most likely, the issues and importance of the election accounted for the record turnout.

The following embed from my Twitter account is based on the status of the ballots as of 2245 MDT on 1 June. Note that the number of ballots sent was smaller than the number of registered voters.

After the final results are published, I’ll examine the returns in more detail.

Click on the graphs to enlarge them to a readable size.

Turnout by county graphs for three metrics: registered voter turnout, ballots received as a percentage of ballots sent, and ballots sent as a percentage of registered voters. The latter indicates how much deadwood in on each county's registration roll. pic.twitter.com/5X7IeJyBVA

— James Conner (@jrcflatheadmemo) June 2, 2020

Governor. Greg Gianforte won the Republican nomination. Mike Cooney won the Democratic nomination decisively, defeating Whitney Williams by 10 points.

Unlike her distinguished parents, Pat and Carole Williams, Williams decided to start at the top, running for governor after returning from years of working outside Montana. She ran a dirty campaign. Perhaps this experience will teach her to keep her campaigns clean and to start at the city council, school board, or legislative level, like her parents, but I have my doubts. I think she’ll go back to working with international nonprofits and not remain in Montana.

Legislature. In the Flathead, all the incumbents, excepting David Dunn in HD-9 (Evergreen and E. Kalispell), prevailed. Dunn lost to Brian Putnam by 36 votes. The margin most likely will survive a recount.

In HD-6, an open seat, Amy Regier defeated former Sen. Bruce Tutvedt in the HD-6 (West and south of Whitefish) GOP primary.

GOP Incumbent Derek Skees beat Dee Kirk-Boon 56–44 percent in HD-11. That puts Skees in line for a major leadership position in the 2021 legislature. Were it not for the pandemic’s shutting down door-to-door campaigning, Kirk-Boon might have closed the gap, but I think Skees still would have won. The Flathead’s Republican primary voters are deeply conservative, and HD-11 is a deep red district.