A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

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6 March 2020 — 1743 mst

Did MSNBC’s Brian Williams commit the
biggest numerical error in the history of journalism?

No. A Kalispell story on the 1981 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens was at least ten orders of magnitude worse — but Williams’ on the air error was still a whopper.

Last night, Williams and Mara Gay, an editorial writer for the New York Times, were discussing how much money Mike Bloomberg spent losing Super Tuesday’s primaries:

…he mistakenly repeated a claim that former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg could have given every American $1 million rather than having run for president. The figure is actually $1.53. The live math gaffe occurred during a discussion with New York Times editorial board member Mara Gay, who appeared to agree with Williams’ assertion about Bloomberg’s 2020 campaign spending.

Williams was off by approximately 5.8 orders of magnitude. Putting it another way his number was approximately 666,000 times too big. Most middle schoolers can do better.

But the size of his error is minuscule compared to the Kalispell Weekly News’ report on the particulate load in the cloud of suspended in air volcanic ash that choked the Flathead Valley in the hours following the eruption. According to the KWN, the particulate loading was “7,366 megagrams per cubic inch.” The actual concentration was 7,366 micrograms per cubic meter.

A megagram is 10^6 grams. A microgram is 10^-6 grams. The difference is 12 orders of magnitude. A cubic inch is approximately 16.4 cubic centimeters, a difference of approximately 4.8 orders of magnitude. Combining the differences in weight and volume yields an error of around 16.8 orders of magnitude.

Williams later issued a correction:

And Maya Gay said she was buying a calculator.

Issuing a correction is good. Not having mathematical savvy to look at the Tweet and instantly identify the error is inexplicable.