A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

 

6 March 2020 — 1629 mst

Did Bullock really change his mind on running for the senate?
Or was he just playing hard to get from the gitgo?

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We may not immediately know the answers to those questions, but whatever happened, it seems increasingly probable that Monday Bullock will file for the senate seat now occupied by Republican Steve Daines. Bullock himself has remained mum, but the number of pro-Bullock stories and opeds — David Leonhardt’s in yesterday’s NY Times, for example — in the last week reek of a coordinated buildup to a dramatic late minute leap into the race.

Some accounts report that Chuck Schumer, who flew to Montana to talk to Bullock, promised Gov. Steve that if he ran, he would get all the help and money he needed. That’s consistent with the premise that Bullock planned all along to run but was holding out to maximize his negotiating power with Schumer and the Democratic Party senatorial campaign committee.

It’s also possible that Schumer brought with him new polling data — in fact, I would bet he did — showing that Bullock has a better shot of beating Daines than previously assumed and by doing so persuaded Bullock to change his mind.

I still think it’s unlikely that Daines will lose as long as Trump wins Montana, but the last time I looked at public polls, Daines’ approval rating was not as high as Trump’s or Bullock’s. Daines has a head start in raising money and the advantages of incumbency, but he's not as skilled a campaigner as Bullock. He may, however, be as hungry for the job as Bullock; perhaps hungrier.

Bullock’s last minute entry into the race complicates life for John Mues, Wilmot Collins, and the other Democrats who mounted good faith campaigns for the senate in the belief that Bullock was not running (all recognizing, of course, that he could change his mind, or that he might just be posturing to gain leverage).

It’s possible that the Democratic Party may urge Mues, et al, to withdraw, clearing the field for Bullock. But it’s also possible that the party may want one or two of the small fry to stay in the primary to raise their visibility in case Biden is nominated and selects Bullock as his vice president.

That’s not as far fetched a notion as some may think. At 77, Biden needs a younger vice president with solid governing experience who can help win states like Michigan and Wisconsin. At 53, with eight years as governor, and four as attorney general, and a Blue Dog approach to the issues, Bullock would be Biden’s best fit for vice president. Biden would need someone to help him win the electoral college, not someone who would help run up the vote in deep blue states such as California.

If Bullock runs for the senate and wins the primary, I’ll vote for him, his Blue Dog pedigree notwithstanding. But if John Mues, whose positions on the issues are much closer to mine, is on the ballot on 2 June, Mues will get my vote.