21 May 2020 — 0932 mdt
Are dense packed airliners also virusliners?
Phase Two’s lifting of quarantine for travellers
may increase risks for the Flathead and Gallatin
Gov. Bullock’s directive for Phase Two of reopening Montana removes the quarantine requirement for non-work related travel:
Effective June 1, the provisions of the March 30 Directive requiring quarantine for nonwork-related arrivals in Montana will no longer be in effect. [Page 5]
That means visitors from places hit hard by the coronavirus will be able to step off the airplane and immediately mingle with people in the national park gateway communities in Flathead (Glacier) and Gallatin Counties (Yellowstone), which receive huge numbers of air travelers during the tourism seasons.
Unfortunately, as reported by Axios, airlines are compensating for the decrease in air travel by offering fewer flights, which they are dense packing:
As restaurants, department stores and other local businesses grapple with operating at half occupancy (or less) to comply with social distancing guidelines, airlines are packing customers to near capacity on a reduced number of flights.
Why it matters: The practice shows how a lack of a national policy allows certain companies — like airlines — to continue to put Americans at risk for exposure to COVID-19 while other companies miss out on revenue by adhering to local regulations.
Ethan Weiss, a cardiologist returning to San Francisco from two weeks of volunteering at a New York hospital, boarded his flight to find himself a sardine in a can:
“I’m more scared of getting on the airplane on Saturday than I’m walking into the hospital,” Weiss told KGO.
This weekend, the doctor’s fears were confirmed when he and 25 other medical professionals found themselves on a jam-packed flight from Newark to San Francisco — despite a previous assurance from United that social distancing measures would be in place.
“I guess @united is relaxing their social distancing policy these days? Every seat full on this 737,” Weiss tweeted, sharing a picture of the crowded plane.
That’s not reassuring news given the ease with which infectious diseases move around airliners. According to the Washington Post:
Though there have been significant advances since the 1970s, and airlines spent weeks touting the safety of flying and their steps against the coronavirus, passenger cabins still pose a danger for the spread of infectious diseases, experts said.
If every seat full flights arrive in the Flathead and Gallatin, they surely will sometimes carry Covid-19 infected and contagious, but asymptomatic, passengers who will spread the disease locally. That’s concerning because, reports Harvard Magazine, the coronavirus may be far more contagious than previously thought:
ONE OF THE BASIC INDICATORS for determining the possible course of the coronavirus pandemic is how many other people an infected individual will infect. In epidemiological science, this factor is called the basic reproduction number, or R nought (R0). An R0 of 1 means that, absent interventions in a population without immunity, each infected individual will infect another. Alarmingly, during the past several weeks, epidemiologists have been discussing the possibility that the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), originally thought to be in the 2 to 3 range, may be closer to 5 or 6.
The Gallatin already has more positive Covid-19 tests than any other county in Montana, probably because it’s both a national park gateway community and the site of Montana’s largest, and flagship, university. The Flathead, a gateway but only a community college county, has a much lower positive rate, but I suspect that will change for the worse with the summer tourist season.
Bullock’s Phase Two directive (page 5) does not lift all restrictions on travelers:
• The Montana National Guard remains authorized to conduct temperature checks, assess individuals for COVID-19 symptoms, and to inquire about exposure history of any traveler arriving in Montana from another state or country through air or rail travel, consistent with the terms and restrictions provided in the March 30 Directive.
• The State will execute a robust public health plan in communities most impacted by tourism, including:
- Surveillance testing of employees.
- Enhanced contact tracing resources deployed to these areas as requested by local authorities.
- Ability to surge personal protective equipment to impacted health care systems.
- Guidelines for operation for businesses that see high-tourist activity.
Will that will be enough to avoid significant outbreaks in the Flathead and Gallatin? I hope so, but I have my doubts. I think Phase Two makes living in these counties more dangerous.