4 November 2020 — 0652 mst

Flathead Democrats down to one leg seat

Montana turns deep red as
Republicans sweep statewide elections

There was no ticket splitting in Montana’s statewide partisan elections. In 2016, Donald Trump received 56.5 percent of Montana’s presidential vote. As of 0500 this morning, with approximately 58 percent of the precincts counted, he was receiving 56 percent of the vote. His fellow Republicans on statewide tickets received 52–59 percent of the vote.

Not a single statewide election was close.

Montana legislature. According to a pair of Tweets by KXLH’s Mike Dennison, Republicans tightened their grip on Montana’s legislature

And, in the MT Senate, looks like GOP picked up at least 2 seats, that would give them a 32-18 majority. A couple of other seats are in doubt for Dems. The red wave was broad. See you later in the morning, when votes will hopefully, finally be all counted. #mtleg #mtpol #mtnews

— Mike Dennison (@mikedennison) November 4, 2020

Yeah, it's late, but another note about the GOP wave in MT ... In the Montana House, Republican candidates are leading in races that, if they hold, would mean a 9-seat pickup, giving them a veto-proof 67-33 majority. #mtpol #mtnews #mtleg

— Mike Dennison (@mikedennison) November 4, 2020

Flathead legislative elections. Democrat Dave Fern won HD-5 (Whitefish) with a landslide that crushed Republican Catherine Owens, a believer in the crackpot Great Barrington Declaration crackpot herd immunity scheme to conquer Covid-19. With the defeat of Democrat Debo Powers in HD-3, Fern becomes the Flathead’s sole Democratic representative in the Montana legislature.

Powers, an appointed incumbent, was defeated decisively by 20-year-old Republican Braxton Mitchell. Unlike HD-5, a blue leaning district in a community whose college educated voters number comprise approximately half the electorate, HD-3 is a red leaning district in a white working class town.

Democratic challenger Guthrie Quist (Rob’s son) was running just a few points behind Republican incumbent Keith Regier in SD-6 (Whitefish to northwestern Kalispell) thanks to a whopping Democratic turnout in the HD-5 half of the district. In HD-6, Republican Amy Regier (Keith’s daughter) blew away Jerramy Dear-Ruel. And in HD-4 (south of Columbia Falls), Republican Matt Regier (Keith’s son), running unopposed, won his third term. The Regier family now controls two percent of the Montana House and two percent of the Montana Senate.

Republican county commissioner. Republican candidate Brad Abell defeated Democrat Kristen Larson by a two to one margin, a depressing if not unexpected outcome. He’s in a position to be a counterweight who keeps Commissioners Brodehl and Holmquist honest, but initially he’ll undoubtedly defer to their feckless judgment. Now, with Gianforte replacing Bullock as governor, the commissioners will become more radically right wing.

Flathead levies. The Kalispell school levy was going down — not a surpise — but the tax to support the dollar gobbling 911 center appeared to be passing, which does surprise me.

Flathead County returns are available on the Flathead elections department’s website. When I wrote this, the report’s runtime was 0247 MST. Although the report said 100 percent of the 42 precincts had been counted, that does not seem right: as of midnight Monday, 53,319 absentee ballots had been returned, yet the FED report said 36,124 ballots had been cast. Perhaps the report’s author only meant that some ballots had been counted in every precinct.

The margin of the Republican victory was breathtaking. The last publicly available poll of Montana, conducted 29 Oct. through 2 Nov. by Change Research had Trump +5, Daines +4, and Gianforte +4. That was within the poll’s ±3.5 percent margin of error, although the probability of a ballot lead was approximately 90 percent for all three candidates. The election’s outcome suggests the poll had a Biden bias of five points or more.

Other recent polls in Montana had most statewide Republicans with leads of approximately five points.

Obviously, the pollsters got Montana wrong. The question is why. The weighting may have been off.

Nationally, the polls also were too favorable to Democrats, who is leading in confirmed electoral votes, but struggling in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, so-called blue wall states that Hillary lost in 2016. Biden, who’s ahead in the popular vote 50.1–48.2 percent, may yet win all three, as tens of thousands of votes remain to be counted, but it’s going to be mighty damned close.

Control of the U.S. Senate may stay in Republican hands. As of 0617 MST, Democrats and Republican had 47 seats each, with six still undecided.

Note to readers. Today will be a busy day for me. I’ll revisit the returns late this evening and update this analysis tomorrow.