7 October 2020 — 1046 mdt
Montana Dems: this ain’t over yet
If Trump’s support is contracting from a red giant to a white
dwarf, what are the consequences for Daines and Gianforte?
Recent polling reveals President Trump’s support in red states may be shrinking like a giant red star’s collapse into a superhot white dwarf, leaving him with a reduced but superintense base that’s no longer large enough to win the electoral college. According to the Washington Post:
Public polling in recent days has painted a long uphill climb for reelection, including a CNN/SSRS poll released Tuesday showing Trump falling to 16 points behind Biden, who leads 57 to 41 percent.
A GOP group working to elect Senate Republicans conducted polling over the weekend in four states — Colorado, Georgia, Montana and North Carolina — as Trump was hospitalized. The president’s numbers dropped “significantly” in every state, falling by about five points in all four.
“The president is in real trouble,” said one of the group’s operatives, who is also close to the White House.
The five-point drop in Montana, etc., must be interpreted cautiously: we don’t know what five points dropped from. But, as the plot below reveals, Trum’s horserace and favorability numbers in Montana have been remarkably stable. The unweighted average of the last six polls has Trump leading Biden by 8.1 points, 50.8 to 42.9 percent. FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average puts Trump ahead by 8 points, 51 to 43 percent. Rounding the unweighted average’s to the nearest integer produces numbers identical to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average. The GOP group’s baseline probably is pretty close to the averages of the six polls I’ve plotted.
Trump’s favorability does not significantly differ from his share of the presidential vote.
If Trump’s loss of five points in Montana is Biden’s gain, Biden leads by two points. If the five points increases the undecideds by the same, Trump’s lead drops to three percent.Before Trump lost the debate, before he entered Walter Reed with a case of Covid-19, he was riding high in Montana — and Daines and Gianforte were embracing him with indecent enthusiasm. Now they may consider that degree of affection unwise. We’ll know if they embrace less and distance more.
Daines’ and Gianforte’s pre-debate leads were smaller than Trump’s. The Scoffmasker in Chief’s increasingly unhinged conduct may not cost them five points, but it could cost them two or three points, which would give Bullock a narrow lead and Cooney a deficit of only a point or two.
I suspect Trump’s irreducible minimun level of support is approximately 35–40 percent nationally, and 40–45 percent in Montana. Once he falls a few points below 50 percent, Republicans who hug him tighter than a teddy bear are in trouble. In a historic blowout, still less likely than a heavy thumping, they’ll be collateral damage, even in red states.
If you’re a Montana Democrat, take heart: this ain’t over yet.