27 October 2020 — 1922 mdt

Voters prefer Democrats on health care issues

New poll shows statewide federal
elections tightening in Montana

Public Policy Polling today reported that its 26–27 October poll found Trump leading Biden by two points, and Bullock leading Daines by one point. The elections for governor and the U.S. House were not polled.

Conducted by robocall and text message, the poll sampled 886 “Montana voters,” which I interpret as registered voters not as likely voters, and has a sampling margin of error of ± 3.3 percent. Likely voter screen usually produce results slightly more favorable to Republican candidates than do registered voter screens.

• President:
• Trump      49%
• Biden      47%
• Undecided   4%

• Senator:
• Bullock    48%
• Daines     47%
• Undecided   6%

The poll asked nine questions on health care. On all seven questions asking whether the voter preferred the Democratic or Republican candidate, the Democratic candidate was preferred.

Trump’s vote share is below 50 percent. Trump carried Montana in 2016 with 56.5 percent of the vote, beating Hillary Clinton by 20.6 points.

The important number from 2016 is not Trump’s margin of victory: it’s his share of the vote. In the new PPP poll, he’s seven points below his share of the vote four years ago, and below the 50 percent mark. His support is falling, probably among independents, especially self-identified independents who lean toward Republicans. That has important implications down ticket in the federal elections for senator and representative, and the statewide elections for secretary of state, attorney general, auditor, and superintendent of public instruction.

Various reports indicate that 750–1,000 voters are being registered daily, which usually augurs well for Democrats.

Tomorrow, I hope to post updated plots of the polls for president, senator, and governor.