1 January 2021 — 1006 mst

We’ll miss Bullock, but not Trump

Prediction: 2021 will be better than 2020, but not
enough better to justify shouts of great joy

Happy New Year. Reality tempers my hope that life will improve much in 2021:

• Humankind begins 2021 fighting a lethal virus that has infected tens of millions and killed hundreds of thousands. Vaccines are finally available, but in the United States the rollout has been chaotic and and far too slow. Meanwhile, barenosers and barefacers continue to flout mask-up mandates and distancing requirements. In the near future, the plague will worsen.


• A defeated, deranged, raging, vengeful president remains in the White House, focusing his energy not on containing the pandemic but on a close to treasonous attempt — aided and abetted by sycophantic Republican politicians — to overturn a fair and free election.


• Tens of millions of Americans are out of work or under-employed, running out of money, running up bills, in danger of being evicted from their homes, losing hope, losing faith that their fellow citizens, through our federal government, will assist them.


• Only one political party — the identity politics bedeviled Democratic Party — remains capable of governing. The Republican Party has devolved into a beholden to wealthy donors authoritarian personality cult that revels in its obeisance to — no, strike “obeisance;” insert “worship of” — Donald Trump. In 19 days, Trump’s nightmare presidency will be over, but the GOP’s authoritarian character will remain, and remain as destructive as ever.


• Perhaps Joe Biden, who believes government can and must improve the lives of our nation’s people, can work a miracle that gets America moving fast on the right track. He’ll produce some successes simply by letting the civil service — the “deep state” so loathed by Trump — do its job. But he’ll face obdurate opposition from congressional Republicans whose highest priority is thwarting Biden, not bettering the nation. If, as I expect, Republicans win at least one of Georgia’s seats in the senate, Mitch McConnell will obstruct progress.


• We now know that despite the Constitution’s impeachment clauses and 25th Amendment, there is no practical way other than elections to remove a president who has become dangerous to the nation. That constitutional deficiency will not be corrected any time soon, nor will the system of electing the president be reformed. Another Trump in the White House is more likely than not. In my view, however, the greater problem is not having the nation’s chief executive chosen by the national legislative chamber whose representation is based on the principle of one person, one vote.


• Starting Monday, Montana will be controlled by a Republican legislature and — for the first time in 16 years — a Republican governor. Unless Greg Gianforte turns out to be a lot more progressive than his record predicts, there will be no veto to deter or reject mean-spirited or crackpot legislation. We do not know yet whether he will continue or tighten Gov. Bullock’s Covid-19 containment measures, or cave-in to the barenosers and barefacers. He plans to wear a mask to set a good example, which is good but not good enough. Masks must be mandated, and mandates must be enforced.

Two predictions

Donald Trump’s post presidential political influence will have a shorter half-life than predicted by the conventional wisdom. He won’t go quietly into the night, but into the night he will go, and, deprived of the power and megaphone of the presidency, he will go more quickly and more quietly than many now suppose. He won’t make a serious run for the presidency in 2024. His hold on authoritarians will wan as they transfer their loyalty and submission to another strongman.

We’ll miss Gov. Bullock. He governed well, keeping the crackpots in the legislature in check, and tried to help those who needed help the most.