5 November 2021 — 0811 mdt
Both districts in Montana Congressional Map 12 lean
Republican, but Democrats can live with the western district
After the Montana Redistricting Commission’s hearing on Republican drawn Map 12 yesterday, the commission’s presiding officer, Maylinn Smith, the professional mediator appointed to the commission by Montana’s supreme court, announced her support for the map, which must be delivered to Montana’s secretary of state by 14 November.
None of Montana’s largest counties — Cascade, Flathead, Gallatin, Lewis and Clark, Missoula, Ravalli, Silver Bow, and Yellowstone — is crossed by a congressional district line.
Lewis and Clark, home to Montana’s capitol city, Helena, and in the western district drawn in 1981, and Yellowstone, home to Montana’s largest city, are in the eastern district. The rest of the large counties are in the western district.
Map 12 splits only one county, Pondera, population 6,024, with approximately two-thirds of the population allocated to the eastern district. According to the Montana Free Press, Conrad is in the eastern district, and Heart Butte, Dupuyer, and Valier, are in the west.
Here’s my estimate of the population and area of the western and eastern districts:
Based on Montana’s 2020 elections for federal and statewide offices, the western district leans Republican by approximately five percent, which is competitive but also a steep and heavy lift for Democrats. The eastern district is deep, deep, red, competitive only in the nightmares of Montana’s Republicans.
I chose the 2020 election, not the elections of 2016, 2017, and 2018, as the primary yardstick for measuring competitiveness. Some analysts are arguing that 2020’s high turnout was a nonrepeatable anomaly caused by an all mail ballot election.
I disagree.
The midterm election of 2018 also featured record high turnout, but ballots were cast at the polls as well as by mail. I attribute the high turnouts to the voters’ believing that the last two elections were exceptionally important because their way of life was at stake. Those perceptions and fears are just as intense today as they were a year and two years ago, and almost certainly will be equally intense next year.
Smith apparently chose the Republican map because she thought it was fair, and because it split one instead of three counties. According to the Montana Free Press:
Explaining her vote in favor of the GOP proposal, Smith said she appreciated that it included two tribal communities in the western district. She said she wasn’t happy about splitting Pondera County, but noted that Pondera County commissioners had indicated their willingness to see their jurisdiction divided. And, she said, she was persuaded the district would be reasonably winnable by either party.
“I think this is a competitive district in that we’ve shown the right person can win this district,” she said.
She may also have been spooked by Map 13 carveouts that placed Helena and Bozeman in the western district, possibly thinking the map had district lines that appeared a bit gerrymandered. I doubt she will change her mind before the final map is approved.
Montana’s Democrats are not happy with Smith’s decision, but now they must pivot from lobbying for a perfectly purple western district to ensuring that their party’s nominee for that district has the money and personnel to wage an effective campaign.