23 February 2022 — 1019 mst
Putin’s revanchism may start a new Cold War
By James Conner
“Never let any Government imagine that it can choose perfectly safe courses; rather let it expect to have to take very doubtful ones, because it is found in ordinary affairs that one never seeks to avoid one trouble without running into another; but prudence consists in knowing how to distinguish the character of troubles, and for choice to take the lesser evil.” Machiavelli, The Prince.
Sunday, I suggested that the Minsk framework offered a workable solution to the Ukrainian crisis. Monday, Russian strongman Vladimir Putin kiboshed that when announced diplomatic recognition of the predominately Russian speaking breakaway provinces (map) that he was sending Russian armies to the provinces to serve as peacekeepers.
Yesterday, Putin upped the ante, demanding (1) recognition of the entire region claimed by the rebels, (2) Ukraine’s recognition that Crimea now is a part of Russia, and (3) that Ukraine rid itself of sophisticated weapons, such as Javalin antitank missiles, obtained from the west. Otherwise, he implied, he’ll launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin may be bluffing, but the odds that he is are diminishing by the hour. In a startlingly aggrieved and bitter speech Monday, he argued that Ukraine is part and parcel of Russia and has no legal or moral right to exist as an independent nation.
Western nations immediately slapped sanctions on Russia. If Russia invades, they may send weapons to Ukraine, but they will not send armies into Ukraine to fight the Russians. That, as President Biden rightly noted, could initiate a world war. And as a practical matter, fighting Russia in its own backyard would be folly, as the ghosts of Bonaparte and Adolf can attest (see Charles Joseph Mindard’s classic map of Napoleon’s 1812 Russian campaign).
I still hope that diplomacy will resolve this crisis. But I’m increasingly convinced that Russia will invade Ukraine, install a puppet government, annex the breakaway regions, and start a new, expensive, and destabilizing Cold War.