11 July 2022 — 1030 mdt
One-third of the Flathead’s Democrats
probably voted in the 2022 GOP primary
By James Conner
Updated. Montana does not register voters by party. Voters are not legally compelled to vote in their party’s primary, but except in special circumstances most do.
Flathead County’s 2022 Republican primary was a special circumstance — and an analysis of the last four primaries strongly suggests that approximately one of three Democrats cast Republican ballots in an effort to nominate moderate Republicans.
Here are the numbers for the 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 Flathead primaries for the U.S. House.
What was the Flathead’s special circumstance? The attempt of a group of moderate Republicans (defined here as conservatives who believe government can and should do good, and who are willing to work with Democrats in the pursuit of constructive public policy) to nominate moderate Republicans for county commissioner and the legislature. This group formed the Flathead First political action committee, raised close to $100,000 dollars, and campaigned hard for their candidates.
For county commissioner, Flathead First supported Jack Fallon, a long time Kalispell school district trustee. He lost to incumbent Pam Holmquist by 40 votes. Flathead First’s candidate in SD-4, Lee Huestis, was thumped. So was the PAC’s candidate in HD-8. But Flathead First’s candidates in HD-7 (Courtenay Sprunger), HD-9 (Tony Brockman), and HD-11 (Tanner Smith) won.
In the Flathead, only house districts 3, 5, and 7 are within the reach of Democrats; only HD-5 is now represented by a Democrat (Dave Fern, who is running for his fourth term). There were no Democratic legislative primaries in the Flathead, and no Democrat filed for county commissioner, and thus no reason other than an unsophisticated sense of propriety for Democrats seeking moderate candidates not to vote in the Republican primary.
The 2024 Flathead primary could feature another large Democratic crossover if Flathead First’s leaders make another attempt to nominate moderate Republican. I think they will. Tyro campaigners, they prevented a Skees dynasty in HD-11, kept moderates in control of HDs 7 and 9, and almost defeated a two-term incumbent county commissioner. They have the money, the will, and now the experience to do better in June, 2024.