10 & 11 June 2022
What are the odds that a recount will flip the outcome of
the GOP election for Flathead County Commissioner?
By James Conner
Updated. The qualitative answer: not high, but not insignificant.
The initial tally has challenger Jack Fallon leading two-term incumbent Pam Holmquist by four votes, 7,405 to 7,401. Jason Parce received 3,160 votes and Brian Friess (who had awful yard signs), 3,016. But the provisional ballots have not been counted.
According to the Flathead Beacon:
…there are roughly 300 provisional ballots to be reconciled and tabulated on June 13. Provisional ballots include those where electors did not bring the correct identification when voting in person and mail in ballots that may be missing a signature.
The website of Flathead County’s elections department does not report how many provisional ballot were cast. Neither does the website of MT SecST. Both the MT SecST and the county elections administrators should, as part of the regular count, report the number of provisional ballots submitted.
It seems likely that the gap between Fallon and Holmquist still will be within recount range.
A recount often slightly changes an election’s final tally, but according to an extensive report by Fair Vote, it seldom flips the election’s outcome.
A recount of a machine counted election must be conducted by hand for a logically valid result. Recounting by machine could repeat any errors present in the initial count.
Vote counting machine errors are unlikely unless the circumstances described in the next paragraph exist. Random counting machine errors are possible, but rare. The old punch card voting systems had an error rate of a percent to a tenth of a percent. Optical counting machines likely have error rates at least an order of magnitude lower.
But A systemic physical malfunction of the counting machine, and/or a programming error can favor one candidate, producing a false outcome. A hand recount will reveal these errors.
A voter’s intent that is not clear to a machine can be clear to a human counting the ballots. For example, a voter might have underlined or circled a candidate’s name instead of darkening the circle next to the name.
Challenges. During a recount, representatives of the candidates may challenge ballots, seeking to exclude ballots marked for their opponent and counted by the machine, and to include ballots marked for their candidate but not counted by the machine. Successful challenges can cancel out each other.
Although Fallon is leading and therefore more likely to win than Holmquist, there’s no safe bet on the outcome. If you’re betting on Fallon, wager a bale of rotten hay but not the ranch. If you’re betting on Holmquist, you’re not a cold blooded card counter, but you are not betting on a long shot..