4 October 2022 — 1709 mdt

Is Monica Tranel really only two points behind Ryan Zinke?

By James Conner

Possibly. A poll of 400 likely voters conducted 14–19 September by Impact Research for Tranel, the Democratic candidate for Montana’s western congressional district, reports Republican Zinke leading Tranel 45–43 percent. Libertarian John Lamb was at three percent, and nine percent were undecided.

And that’s all we know about that poll.

We don’t know whether it was conducted by telephone, by text or email, by internet panel. We don’t know because Tranel did not release a description of the methodology, let alone the crosstabs. She didn’t even, insofar as I can determine, release the pollster’s estimate of the margin of error.

For a traditional probability poll, a sample of 400 would have a MOE of 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

If we assume a MOE of 4.9 percent, the numbers are within the margin of error and Zinke’s lead is not statistically significant. But, according to the ballot lead calculator at the American Research Group, there’s a 66 percent probability he’s leading Tranel.

So why, if she’s probably behind, did Tranel release these numbers?

Without doubt, to assure donors, staff, and volunteers that she’s within striking distance, perhaps closing the gap, and to convince them that if they stay with her, she can win.

That Zinke has not released a poll reporting he’s ahead by more than two points may suggest that his polling confirms Tranel’s polling.

No independent poll of this Montana election has been released, although a text message I received this afternoon suggests a poll may be underway.

(I did not respond, as the inquiry may have been a scam. Being addressed as “Fely” instead of as “sir” or as “sir or madam” raised my hackles, and suggested either an appallingly disrespectful insouciance on the part of the pollster or some kind of crooked or dirty come on.)

Still, the election could be as close as Tranel’s poll suggests. In 2016, Zinke won the western district’s counties by 7.7 percent. In 2018, Democrat Kathleen Williams won the counties by three percent. And in 2020 Matt Rosendale defeated Williams by 4.3 percent. The district leans Republican, but can go Democratic when the stars align, not a frequent event.

At FiveThirtyEight, the analysts think most of the stars are aligning on the Republican side of the sky. According to FiveThirtyEight’s model simulating the election, Zinke won 94 percent of the time. FiveThirtyEight predicts Zinke will win by approximately ten percent.

The western district campaign is getting chippy, even nasty. Zinke, his wins in 2014 and 2016 notwithstanding, has a harried air about him, as though he’s worried, exasperated, sweating, and not entirely sure he’s going to win an election in which by the conventional wisdom he’s heavily favored. His tenure as Secretary of the Interior, during which he was accused of, and investigated for, but not indicted for, let alone convicted of, unethical conduct was shorter than expected and not entirely happy. Which is not surprising. Zinke’s chief qualification for SecDOI was being a hunting buddy of Donald Trump, Jr. In retrospect, his taking the job may have amounted to shooting himself in his political foot.

In elections past, the University of Montana, Montana State University, and MSU at Billings, have conducted polls of statewide Montana elections (list of polls at FiveThirtyEight). They may be conducting polls now.

In 2028, MSU received 1,815 responses to its survey. Depending on how the data were organized and stored, it may be possible to segregate the responses by 2022 congressional districts and get western and eastern district results with a MOE of approximately three or four percent. Those results could be compared with the election’s outcome, providing an estimate of the poll’s accuracy.

My advice to Tranel. Trailing in a poll never is good, but trailing by two percent is better, much better, than trailing by six or 12 percent. Don’t give up. You’re rolling with the odds of a gambler, not a sucker. Oh, and release all of your damn poll.

My advice to Zinke. SEALs don’t sweat. If you need a Valium to get back your former blow dried cocksureness, take it.