17 October 2022 — 1055 mdt

Is Libertarian John Lamb really attracting 8 percent
of the vote in MT’s western congressional district?

By James Conner

That’s what a poll commissioned by Big Sky Voters, a liberal political action committee, found at the end of September. A poll commissioned by Democratic nominee Monica Tranel two weeks earlier found Lamb at three percent.

Neither Zinke nor the Republican Party nor conservative fellow travelers have released polls with different numbers. That may indicate their internal polls are returning similar results.

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In two of the last three regular federal elections, U.S. House candidates for the counties comprising Montana’s new western congressional district, Libertarians have received approximately three percent of the vote.

Download county level spreadsheet

Please bear in mind that because pollsters round percentages to the nearest whole number — in today’s New York Times, see Nate Cohn’s commentary on the practice — the gap between the candidates may not what simple subtraction suggests.

If the Big Sky Voters poll is an accurate portrayal of the western district’s likely voters — it may be an outlier — it may indicate that Lamb is attracting both Democratic and Republican voters. “May” is the operative word here. May. The conventional wisdom, of course, is that because Libertarians are closer to Republicans than Democrats on policy and philosophy, they mostly take votes away from Republicans.

But the conventional wisdom may not be true. Many who vote for third party candidates are dissatisfied with the two major parties. If a third party or independent candidate is not on the ballot, they may not vote in the race rather than reverting to one of the major parties.

Zinke clearly is worried about Lamb. Twice now he’s asked Lamb to withdraw. That was a serious tactical mistake. There was no chance Lamb would withdraw. Zinke simply made himself look frightened and weak.

Zinke has also made himself appear weak by not joining all the debates and candidates forums for the western district election.

From Zinke’s website. Tranel was an Olympics rower.

If Lamb’s eight percent share really is that big, it may indicate that Republicans who never would vote for a Democrat, but who would feel unclean if they voted for Zinke, and who would find not voting shameful, are voting Libertarian to discharge their civic obligations while not casting a conscience troubling vote for a man they consider a shifty, dodgy, trimmer who ought not represent Montana.