15 September 2022 — 2031 mdt

Aaron Judge’s extraordinary 2022 baseball season

By James Conner

Before the steroid era that almost ruined the game, the third rarest feat in Major League Baseball was the 50-homer season. From 1920, when Babe Ruth hit 54, through 1961, when Roger Maris hit 61, there were only 16 such seasons, only eight players that had them, and just five who had more than one.

The second rarest feat from 1900–1961? Perfect games. Just four were thrown, all in the American league: Cy Young, 1904; Addie Joss, 1908; Charlie Robertson, 1922; and Don Larson in the 1956 World Series. Source.

The rarest big time MLB hitting feat? Combining the triple crown — batting average, home runs, runs batted in — with a 50-home run season, done only once in MLB history. The player? New York’s Mickey Mantle in 1956. He also batted .353 that year, the last time a player in any era hit .350 or higher while hitting 50 or more home runs. Mantle’s .705 Slugging mark led MLB, but was 15 points behind Ted Williams in On Base Percentage (Williams hit 24 home runs and drove in 82 run, playing in 14 fewer games).

Now another Yankee, Aaron Judge, who hit 52 homers in 2017, his official rookie season, is closing in on Maris’ non-steroid record of 61 home runs.

Download Excel spreadsheet.

Judge, whose power comes from his 6-7, 282 lb., frame, not bootleg pharmaceuticals, leads MLB in home runs and RBI, and is seven points behind the AL leader in batting average (he’s 19 points behind the MLB leader), putting him in striking distance of becoming the second player to win a triple crown while hitting 50 home runs. He also leads MLB in OBP (.413) and Slugging (.688). A batting average of ≥ .350 is out of reach, however.

He’s compiled these numbers in 616 plate appearances, which means he’s hitting a home run every 10.8 times he steps up to bat. Babe Ruth’s best was 11.4 PA:HR. Judge could set a PA:HR record for 50-homer seasons.

And he’s doing this in a year of dominant pitching. Only four players are hitting .320 or better, with Freddie Freeman of the LA Dodgers topping the list at .329. Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber, this year’s second most prolific home run hitter, has hit the ball for four bases only 37 times. In 1956, Duke Snider was closest to Mantle with 43 round trippers.

Although Judge has a decent chance of surpassing Maris’ 61 homers, he’s not likely to join the 500 home runs club, of which Ruth (714), Willie Mays (660), Mantle (536), and Jimmie Foxx (534) are pre-steroid era members. He was 25 years old in his first full season, at the end of which his career’s home run total was 56. At that point in his career, Mantle had hit 207 homers, Foxx 222, Mays 152, and Ruth 103. At 30, Judge has hit 206 home runs. At 30, Mantle had hit 406, and Ruth, 309. But during his ages 30–38 seasons, Ruth went on a tear the likes of which may never be seen again, hitting 402 home runs.

Only Mays, 91, is still alive.

Can Judge go on a similar tear? In theory, yes. In practice, it seems doubtful. Even if he overcomes his proneness to injuries, his skills will decline. Through 1961, 34-year-old Johnny Mize was the oldest player to hit 50. At 34, Willie Mays hit 52 in 1965. At 33, Ruth hit 54 in 1928. Not until the steroid era did players 35 and older begin having 50 homer seasons. My best guess is that Judge finishes with 450–500, but I would not be that surprised if he joins the 500 HR club.

In the meantime, his at bats are a joy to watch. A student of the Charlie Lau school of hitting, his swing is smooth and powerful, but easy. He swings hard, but within himself, letting his great strength do the work when his bat makes contact.

Mantle, whom I had the privilege of seeing hit, always swung for the fences. Batting right handed, his swing was smooth and classic. Left handed, his swing was just as powerful but not as smooth. He hit for a higher average from the right side. And when he had everything going his way, as he did in 1956, 1957, and 1961, he was baseball’s most feared hitter.

Over the years, students of baseball debated who was better, Mays or Mantle. At their peaks, Mantle was the better hitter, and a fast, and pretty good, outfielder. Mays, with his insouciantly charming basket catch, was the better outfield. Both were great players, but their skill sets were different enough that each should be evaluated on his own terms.

Roger Maris had a home run swing that reminded me of Ted Williams’ stroke. Unlike Mantle and Williams, he wasn’t a high average, high on base, high slugging batter. But in 1961 hitting third, with Mantle hitting clean up, he saw a lot of good pitches with which he made contact. And he was a golden glove outfielder, graceful afoot and very fast (as a high school footballer, he scored five touchdowns returning kickoffs and punts in one game). Statistically, he was a good player who had one great season. Maris is not in baseball’s hall of fame.

Judge is completing his second great season. He may complete several more. See him play while you can.