23 September 2022
Putin’s war hurts Montanans’ pocketbooks
The Russian invasion of Ukraine will end when
Zelensky surrenders or Putin loses power or dies
By James Conner
The 5,500-mile great circle route from Helena, Montana, to Kyiv, Ukraine crosses the ice of northern Greenland. The route to peace may be infinitely longer, is far from clear, and many of the possible outcomes of the war chill one’s spine, Ukraine’s recent recapture of territory east of Kharkiv notwithstanding.
This is not of abstract interest to Montanans. The economic impacts of the war contribute to the increased costs of food, fuel, and strategic minerals and commodities. Our homes are not getting blown away, but our budgets are.
The most important Ukrainian war news for Americans this week was Putin’s announcement that he was mobilizing reserves. Most news reports put the call-up number at 300,000, but understandingwar.org, citing Russian sources, reports the true number may be a million men.
Kremlin quotas will likely force local officials to mobilize men regardless of their military status. The quota for mobilized men remains unverifiable, with Kremlin officials claiming that Russia will mobilize only 300,000 men and Russian opposition outlets’ sources suggesting that the number might reach a million. [Source.]
Training and equipping that many men will take months, during which Ukraine may reclaim additional territory. But come late winter or early spring, while the steppes are still frozen and easily crossed by mechanized equipment, Russia may launch a powerful offensive, walking its troops deeper into Ukraine behind withering artillery barrages. Russia’s 152mm howitzers may have slightly less range that the western 155mm howitzers that Ukraine now shoots, and its short range artillery rockets are not as good as the HIMARS rockets the U.S. has sent Kyiv, but it has a fearful number of artillery pieces and tanks. Quantity can prevail over quality.
Russia, which has three to four times the population of Ukraine, has an astounding willingness to accept high casualties. Millions of Russian soldiers died on the eastern front — at Krusk, Leningrad, Stalingrad — during World War II. If Putin stays in power, and stays the course, he’s likely to win a long war of attrition.
Ukraine is fighting well, but taking heavy casualties and suffering terrible damage to its infrastructure. A years long fight will kill a huge fraction of a generation while damaging the economy so damaged that repairs will take decades. And should the Russians succeed in capturing or killing Zelensky, there would be no one to hold Ukraine together the way he has.
Prepare for a long, expensive winter. No Russian shell or rocket will detonate where Montanans live, but the economic fallout of Putin’s war already hurts us when we buy a gallon of gas, a loaf of bread, or a bottle of sunflower oil.