16 June 2023 — 0417 mdt
MT OPI Chief Arntzen’s 2014 run at the GOP nomination
for Montana’s congressional seat was not impressive
By James Conner
Montana’s sole seat in the U.S. House of Representatives was open in 2014, a low turnout year that paradoxically featured a lot of Tea Party energy. Incumbent Republican Steve Daines was running for the U.S. Senate seat formerly occupied by Democrat Max Baucus.
Three former state senators — Ryan Zinke (Whitefish), Matt Rosendale (Glendive), and Corey Stapleton (Billings) — filed for the house nomination, as did former Yellowstone County state legislator Elsie Arntzen, and Helena businessman Drew Turino.
Statewide, Zinke won a narrow victory over Stapleton and Rosendale. But in the counties that now comprise Montana’s eastern congressional district, Stapleton finished ahead of Zinke. Arntzen and Turino each won less than one vote in ten.
Arntzen went on to win two elections for Montana’s Office of Public Instruction. That may have been her plan all along, and her appearance on the ballot for U.S. Representative may have amounted to training wheels for her run at OPI. If so, it paid off. She gained valuable experience and her modest name recognition was enough to clear the OPI primary for her in 2016.
Now she’s termed out with only one statewide office — U.S. Senator — open to her in 2024.
Her name in connection with Congress came up again recently when Helena Independent reporter Seaborn Larson bootstrapped a story about the unauthorized use of OPI’s official seal into a “If the seat opens up she won’t rule out running for it” story.
Now held by Matt Rosendale, a member of the House’s Freedom Caucus, the eastern district seat will open up if Rosendale, who lost to Tester in 2018, decides to take another crack at the burly farmer from Big Sandy.
I doubt Rosendale will do that. There’s no reason to think he would beat Tester the second time around. If he gives up his seat to lose to Tester again, he’s out of statewide options until 2028, when Gov. Gianforte will be termed out. If Rosendale runs for re-election, he’s likely to win and start building up seniority. No Democrat has won the eastern district, or the counties now comprising it, since John Melcher in 1974.
And we know from various news reports (Politico, Flathead Beacon) that the Montana Republican Party is trying to recruit Tim Sheehy, a wealthy former Navy SEAL, to challenge Tester. Zinke, a former Navy SEAL, is running for re-election and touting Sheehy.
Rosendale could, of course, challenge Sheehy for the nomination, but I think he’ll opt to run for re-election in Montana’s deep red eastern district. If he does, he won’t be challenged by Arntzen or any other prominent Republican.