30 May 2023 — 1806 mdt

Will Ryan Zinke vote for or against
the McCarthy-Biden debt ceiling deal?

By James Conner

We know that Democratic Sen. Jon Tester will vote for the deal, and that Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale, a Freedom Caucus fellow traveler to his dry bone, will vote against the deal.

But what will Montana’s western congressional representative, Republican Ryan Zinke, a far savvier politician than Rosendale, do?

If he votes for the deal, he would stay in McCarthy’s good graces, which down the road could help him move legislation related to Montana. But voting for the deal could infuriate hard core MAGA Republicans in Montana, generating a serious primary challenge next year (Zinke is not taking a run at Tester).

If he votes against the deal, he may stave off a primary challenge, but at the cost of earning the ire of McCarthy, a man who remembers and pays back those who cross him.

The deal itself, as the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake notes, is a win for Biden, who is letting McCarthy claim victory to get his caucus to approve it.

McCarthy, incidentally, never was going to be remembered as the Speaker who led the U.S. Government to default on its obligations. Freedom Caucusers who allowed themselve to believe that set a new standard for gullibility.

McCarthy’s problem is not the Freedom Caucus, which through its “We’ll never vote for any deal; we want default,” intransigence dealt itself out of the game. None of its members was on McCarthy’s negotiating team. And because some Democrats will vote for the deal, the Freedom Caucus punks lack the power to dictate the final terms of the bills approving the deal.

No, McCarthy’s problem is convincing a majority of his caucus — probably 100 or so — to approve the deal so that the bill can get to the floor. That won’t be easy — some won’t much like the deal, others may itch and scratch at accepting votes from the opposition party, but as long as Democrats grouse enough about the deal, he probably can make the sale.

And if he does, he may get a special satisfaction from kneecapping the Freedom Caucus’ parliamentary terrorists who humiliated him during the balloting for Speaker of the House. McCarthy, remember, lost the first 14 ballots running as a rooster. On the 15th, he ran as a capon and won. He hasn’t forgotten that humilitation, nor has he forgotten how the same nihilists drove John Boehner and Paul Ryan from the speakership.

McCarthy, possibly with Biden’s quiet help, realized that once a bill advances to the floor of the House, the Freedom Caucus no longer has a veto if (a) McCarthy is willing to sweeten the package to attract Democratic votes, and (b) Democrats are willing to provide those votes.

I think the deal will hold and be approved before 5 June.