A reality based independent journal of steely-eyed observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

12 March 2024

Democrats and Republicans field
candidates in all Flathead legislative districts

No Libertarians, Greens, or Independents filed for legislative office in northwest Montana. Here’s a summary table of who in this area is running for what legislative office.

flat_final_12-mar
 

11 March 2024 — 1049 mdt

This is the last day to file

Flathead Memo: Will the Flathead's Democrats
manage to field a full slate of legislative candidates?

By James Conner

Filing for elective office in Montana closes today at 1700 MDT. There’s plenty of competition for the eastern congressional seat that Matt Rosendale is vacating, but thus far not enough competition for some legislative seats.

In northwest Montana, Democrats have yet to produce candidates for Senate Districts 3 and 7, and House districts 5, 7, 9, 11, and 12. That’s much better than local Democrats did in 2022 when statewide the Montana Democratic Party failed to field candidates in 29 of 100 House districts, and seven of 27 Senate Districts. Download spreadsheet of 2022 general election legislative ballot and results.

Here’s how the northwest Montana legislative filings situation looked as of 0639 MDT this morning.

…read the rest

 

8 March 2024

Biden’strong SOTU speech should disabuse Nervous Nellie Democrats of the fantasy he’s too old to be President

A sure sign of aging is severe short term memory loss and the ability to hold one’s own in situations requiring snappy repartee. One such situation is heckling, of which Republicans provided plenty during his State of the Union speech last night. Biden deflected their jabs with aplomb and amusement, establishing that he’s still quick on his feet. He should send the hecklers a thank you note for their help in putting the age issue to rest among Democrats and, I suspect, most Independents.

Biden departed from his prepared remarks, lengthening his speech with well phrases ad-libs. Therefore, full transcripts are just becoming available. One is available at the White House’s website: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/08/remarks-by-president-biden-in-state-of-the-union-address-3/. Major media outlets such and the New York Times and Washington Post should have annotated transcripts in a few hours. I don’t know whether these annotated transcripts will be behind a paywall.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an M.I.T. graduate (economics) fluent in English undoubtedly was listening. Here’s what he heard:

I know the last five months have been gut-wrenching for so many people — for the Israeli people, for the Palestinian people, and so many here in America.

This crisis began on October 7th with a massacre by a terrorist group called Hamas, as you all know. One thousand two hundred innocent people — women and girls, men and boys — slaughtered after enduring sexual violence. The deadliest day of the — for the Jewish people since the Holocaust. And 250 hostages taken.

Here in this chamber tonight are families whose loved ones are still being held by Hamas. I pledge to all the families that we will not rest until we bring every one of your loved ones home.

We also — (applause) — we will also work around the clock to bring home Evan and Paul — Americans being unjustly detained by the Russians — and others around the world.

Israel has a right to go after Hamas. Hamas ended this conflict by releasing the hostages, laying down arms — could end it by — by releasing the hostages, laying down arms, and s- — surrendering those responsible for October 7th.

But Israel has a h- — excuse me. Israel has a added burden because Hamas hides and operates among the civilian population like cowards — under hospitals, daycare centers, and all the like.

Israel also has a fundamental responsibility, though, to protect innocent civilians in Gaza. (Applause

.)

This war has taken a greater toll on innocent civilians than all previous wars in Gaza combined. More than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed —

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Says who?

THE PRESIDENT: — most of whom are not Hamas. Thousands and thousands of innocents — women and children. Girls and boys also orphaned.

Nearly 2 million more Palestinians under bombardment or displacement. Homes destroyed, neighborhoods in rubble, cities in ruin. Families without food, water, medicine.

It’s heartbreaking.

I’ve been working non-stop to establish an immediate ceasefire that would last for six weeks to get all the prisoners released — all the hostages released and to get the hostages home and to ease the intolerable an- — humanitarian crisis and build toward an enduring — a more — something more enduring.

The United States has been leading international efforts to get more humanitarian assistance into Gaza. Tonight, I’m directing the U.S. military to lead an emergency mission to establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the coast of Gaza that can receive large shipments carrying food, water, medicine, and temporary shelters.

No U.S. boots will be on the ground.

A temporary pier will enable a massive increase in the amount of humanitarian assistance getting into Gaza every day. (Applause.)

And Israel must also do its part. Israel must allow more aid into Gaza and ensure humanitarian workers aren’t caught in the crossfire. (Applause.)

And they’re announcing they’re going to — they’re going to ca- — have a crossing in Northern Gaza.

To the leadership of Israel, I say this: Humanitarian assistance cannot be a secondary consideration or a bargaining chip. Protecting and saving innocent lives has to be a priority.

As we look to the future, the only real solution to the situation is a two-state solution over time. (Applause.)

And I say this as a lifelong supporter of Israel, my entire career. No one has a stronger record with Israel than I do. I challenge any of you here. I’m the only American president to visit Israel in wartime.

But there is no other path that guarantees Israel’s security and democracy. There is no other path that guarantees Pa- — that Palestinians can live in peace with po- — with peace and dignity.

And there is no other path that guarantees peace between Israel and all of its neighbors — including Saudi Arabia, with whom I’m talking.

Creating stability in the Middle East also means containing the threat posed by Iran. That’s why I built a coalition of more than a dozen countries to defend international shipping and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

I’ve ordered strikes to degrade the Houthi capability and defend U.S. forces in the region.

Today is a dialysis day, so that’s it for now. I may have more tomorrow. Thanks for reading. — James Conner.

 

6 March 2024

The day after Super Tuesday: initial impressions

I’ll try to have more later.

Trump and Biden won big, but there are caveats. Haley throws in the towel but doesn’t beat the drum for The Donald. And the most interesting results may have been down ballot in California.

Trump cruised to victory in all states except lefty Vermont, where in the early returns Haley was just cracking 50 percent. That wasn’t enough to keep her in the race. She withdrew this morning, but didn’t endorse Trump.

Biden also cruised to victory, but hit a speed bump in Minnesota where Uncommitted took 19 percent of the vote. Most of the support for Uncommitted came in the Twin Cities and surrounds where there are large Somali (Muslim) populations.

As the war in Gaza becomes increasingly bloody, as even supporters recoil at the civilian death toll, Biden is paying an unfair price for his principled support of Israel. After the 7 October 2023 invasion and massacre by Hamas, a terrorist group that wants to push Israel into the sea, Biden flew to Tel Aviv, publicly embraced Netanyahu, and in effect whispered in his ear, “Love ya, man. Got your back. Now, have you thought about this….”

That gave Biden the leverage to dissuade Israel from starting a war against Lebanon based Hezbollah, another terrorist group possessing thousands of missiles and rockets with the avowed goal of pushing Israel into the sea. Israel and Hezbollah are trading potshots, but are not in a full blown conflict.

Whether Democrats voting Uncommitted now will come to their senses on election day and vote for Biden probably depends on whether the Gaza war can be brought to an end this spring, and a non-time limited cease fire agreed to by Israel and Hamas, and effective humanitarian and economic measures to repair Gaza implemented and accepted by most residents of Gaza.

Down ballot, in deep blue California, Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, and Republican Steve Garvey — yeah, the popular and very good first baseman for the Dodgers — finished first and second in California’s jungle primary, advancing to the November general election. This spares Democrats an ugly and expensive grudge match between Schiff, who was endorsed by Nancy Pelosi and most elected Democrats, and Rep. Katie Porter, a leftist with unbounded self-regard, political ambition, and sense of entitlement.

Montana. Filing for elective office closes Monday, 11 March, at 1700 MDT. There have been a lot of new filings since the month began, and there will be through Monday. Keep a close eye on Democratic legislative filings, especially in big red counties such as the Flathead, where there are several districts, especially HD-7 (old downtown Kalispell), where no Democrats have filed. I’m keeping an eye on this and will report more tomorrow.

Finally, does the sun feel warmer on your face when you step outside at solar noon? It should, because it is. At the winter solstice, Old Sol only reached 18° about the horizon at high noon in Kalispell. Now it’s reaching 36° and climbing higher rapidly. At the summer solstice, it will top out at ≈ 65°.

 

23 February 2024 — 1033 mst

Did Rosendale file for the Senate just to save face?

By James Conner

That possibility deserves serious consideration. He spent a year telling friends he would challenge Tester again, his 2018 loss to the Democrat notwithstanding. But he was all hat and no cattle. He complained, but didn’t campaign, didn’t make a heroic effort to raise money, didn’t assemble a blue ribbon campaign team. He just told his friends “I’m running against Tester in 2024,” and they believed him instead of being properly skeptical.

…read the rest

 

14 February 2024 — 1146 mst

Brief notes: a sad day in Washington, Rosendale and
the “Uniparty”, Lindsay Graham brownnoses Trump

Mayorkas impeachment. The homeland security cabinet secretary was impeached by Republicans the U.S. House yesterday by one vote. He’s not accused of high crimes or misdemeanors. That’s because he didn’t commit any. His sin was carrying out immigration laws the Republicans, and their cult leader, former president Donald Trump, don’t like. Thus impeachment was debased to a censure of not even unacceptable personal conduct but as a statement of disagreement over public policy.

…read the rest

 

10 February 2024 — 1642 mst

Follow-up on Rosendale’s senate run

By James Conner

“Et tu, Trump?”

Six years ago, President Donald Trump and his prairie dog shooting son swooped into Montana several times to campaign for Matt Rosendale, who nonetheless lost to incumbent Democrat Jon Test. Yesterday, Rosendale, surrendering his secure day job as Montana’s eastern district congressman, announced he is running for the senate again. But this time he won’t be running with Trump’s blessing. A few hours later, reports The Hill, Trump shivved Rosendale, endorsing Tim Sheehy, Montana Sen. Steve Daines’ choice to challenge Tester.

…read the rest

 

9 February 2024

Is Matt Rosendale counting on Democratic crossover
votes to win the Republican senatorial primary?

By James Conner

The question. Why would a Republican — Matt Rosendale — representing a solidly Republican congressional district — Montana’s eastern district — and who lost convincingly to Democrat Jon Tester in 2018, give up a safe seat to challenge Tester again in 2024? I’ve asked myself that question for a year, always answering: Rosendale will come to his senses and run for re-election from his district.

tester_2006-2012-2018

I was wrong. He didn’t. According to numerous reports from credible news media, Rosendale, 63, will announce this morning that he’s running for the GOP nomination for the senate. His major opponent: 38-year-old Tim Sheehy, a rich businessman from Gallatin County who has been campaigning for months, and according to some polls, now leads Rosendale two to one. His minor opponent: former MT SecST and PSC commissioner Brad Johnson. Could Johnson be a spoiler? We’ll find out.

…read the rest

 

18 December 2023

An update on the future of Flathead Memo

By James Conner

Two situations account for my recent paucity of posts on Flathead Memo.

Two situations account for my recent paucity of posts on Flathead Memo.

Antibiotics, greenbacks, & flat on my back. My last post, a commentary on Matt Rosendale’s possible candidacy for U.S. Senate (see today’s update) was a month ago. Since then, I’ve been employing powerful and expensive antibiotics to fight several dangerous bacterial infections. I’m winning. But I’m also exhausted. And when I recover from this, I’m headed for surgery on my arm.

Will I still be posting on Flathead Memo? Yes. Will I be posting as frequently as planned? No, damnit. But I will be posting. I still enjoy writing, and I still have a few things to say.

…read the rest

 

17 November 2023 — 1103 mst

Rosendale is approaching put up or shut up
time for a U.S. Senate bid

By James Conner

Eastern district incumbent Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale, who lost to Jon Tester in 2018, has been hinting for months that he’d like another crack at Tester. Meanwhile, wealthy businessman and former naval commando Tim Sheehy, recruited and backed by Steve Daines, has filed for the nomination, is actively campaigning, and is closing the gap with Rosendale. Former secretary of state Brad Johnson, 72, announced recently that he’s seeking the GOP nomination. Libertarian Sid Daoud filed for the Senate earlier this week.

So why is Rosendale teasing a run, but dithering and dawdling?

Here’s my theory. He’s waiting to see whether he can count on Democratic crossover votes in the primary.

…read the rest

 

8 November 2023 — 0857 mst

A disgraceful moment in the U.S. House of Representatives

By James Conner

Last night, the U.S. House censured Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI 12) for uttering the slogan “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.” According to the New York Times, the censure resolution:

… cited Ms. Tlaib’s embrace of the phrase “from the river to the sea,” a pro-Palestinian rallying cry that many regard as calling for the eradication of Israel and has been deemed antisemitic by the Anti-Defamation League. The resolution called the phrase “a genocidal call to violence to destroy the state of Israel and its people to replace it with a Palestinian state extending from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea.”

Ms. Tlaib has said the slogan, which was used by pro-Palestinian protesters featured in a video she posted accusing President Biden of supporting genocide in Gaza, is “an aspirational call for freedom, human rights and peaceful coexistence, not death, destruction or hate.”

I consider the slogan a rallying cry for Hamas’ goal of eradicating the state of Israel and killing all Jews. Tlaib’s defense of her use of it doesn’t pass the laugh test.

…read the rest

 

9 October 2023 — 1003 mdt

 Updated  extensively at 1855 MDT.

Israel needs and deserves the full support
of all Americans. Hamas deserves death.

By James Conner

Israel’s population is 9.4 million; Gaza’s, 2.3 million; Gaza plus the occupied West Bank, approximately 6 million; the United States’, 332 million.

As of this morning, the English language Times of Israel reports that Hamas has murdered more than 800 in Israel. Multiplying that by (332/9.4) yields a U.S. equivalent deaths number of approximately 28,000, an order of magnitude greater than the death toll for the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks on New York’s trade towers and the Pentagon.

Those figures are approximate, but they help Americans understand the shock and anger that Hamas’ murderous raid has generated in Israel.

…read the rest

 

29 September 2023

Will voters approve four levies for Kalispell’s
schools when property values are out of control?

By James Conner

Kalispell’s elementary and high school districts are putting four six-figure levies to the voters this fall. It’s an all mail ballot election, and the ballots are due Tuesday, 3 October.

Each district is running safety and technology levies.

The levies

This summary is mostly for readers who do not live in Kalispell.

The elementary district is asking approval of 15.6 mils, to raise $1.5 million a year for safety, and the same amounts for technology.

…read the rest

 

11 September 2023

Twenty-two years after terrorists knocked down the
Trade Towers and set the Pentagon afire, we are less free

I began that day as usual, checking the news on CNN’s website. An image of a smoke pouring from a skyscraper greeted me. Because in those times news websites sometimes were hacked, I turned on my television to confirm what I was seeing. There was no hack. A jumbo airliner had crashed into one of New York’s World Trade Towers in broad daylight.

The press speculated that it was a terrible accident, but I knew instantly it was a terrorist attack. Airliners and other large aircraft do not accidentally crash into a skyscraper when the sun is shining and visibility is unlimited. Within the hour, a second airliner roared into the other tower at 500 mph, proving to everyone that a terrorist attack was underway.

In Kalispell, 2,000 miles and two time zones to the northwest, the day was sunny, clear, and mild. A county road crew was repaving the road in front of my house. The crew waiting for the next truckload of hot asphalt gathered on my front lawn listening to a huge portable radio. I took a few digital photographs of the scene and chatted with the workers. “This means war,” said one.

911_road_crew_listens-copy-2

Flathead road crew listens to news of the attacks.

…read the rest

 

6 September 2023

AG Knudsen’s legal troubles result from the GOP’s
efforts to govern Montana by legislative supremacy

Montana’ Office of Disciplinary Counsel has accused Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen of 41 counts of professional misconduct. That’s a staggering tally.

But it’s part of a pattern. The radicals now running Montana’s Republican Party do not believe in co-equal branches of government, in the checkS, balances, and safeguards built into the separation of the executive, judicial, and legislative functions of government. They believe that what the legislature decides should be supreme and not subject to judicial review. To that end, they spent the last several legislative sessions attempting to weaken the judiciary and to subordinate it to the legislature.

They already have, with a veto-proof majority, the ability to override the governor. If they can eviscerate the judiciary, they’ll have the means to be constable, judge, jury, and court of review for Montana. There’s a name for that kind of government: legislative dictatorship.

Overall, that’s what Knudsen’s current predicament is about.

If the charges against him hold up, his role in the scheme to establish legislative supremacy in Montana may be kneecapped. But the scheme will continue unabated. The only way to stop is if for Democrats to win a majority in at least one house of the legislature.

 

27 August 2023

Flathead Memo standing down until 5 September

Unless there is an emergency, I’m standing down until after Labor Day while I do late summer maintenance on my house, and finish switching upgrading from my 2009 Intel powered Mac Mini to a 2020 M1 powered Mac Mini that can run current software.

— James Conner

 

27 August 2023 — 1527 mdt

Two disturbing moments defined
the 23 August Republican debate

By James Conner

Eight Republican presidential candidates, and the conspicuous absence of front runner Donald Trump, gathered in Milwaukee Wedensday for a two-hour debate sponsored and conducted by Fox News. I watched all be the last 15 minutes and would have watched those minutes had not Fox’s live stream suddenly terminated, as it had several times during the event.

But I saw enough.

According to small sample quick post debate polls, the performances of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose raging bull delivery would have made a pro wrestler proud, and Vivek Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old pharmaceutical billionaire without any public service on his résumé, were liked best by Republican primary voters. And, as Morning Consult, discovered, Trump is ahead of both men by miles.

…read the rest

 

26 August 2023 — 0301 mdt

Trying to get a Montana tax rebate: one
woman’s exasperating experience

Guest essay by Jan Lombardi

OK, armed and ready, I sat down with a computer, a postcard and letter from Governor Gianforte and two letters from his Revenue Department on how to get a property tax rebate.

Logged on to website and bonk – What’s a geocode? Frustrated, I set the paperwork aside.

…read the rest

 

25 August 2023 — 2059 mdt

The Republican-Tax-Montana-Homeowners-Program
Will Be Hitting Your Mailbox Soon

Guest essay by Ann Brodsky

brodsky_ann_250v

Ever since Democrats shined a spotlight on the historic residential property tax increases that are coming your way, Republicans have been trying every which way to shift the blame from themselves. It’s the local governments raising your taxes, they cry! We should be grateful for the one-time partial rebate, they declare! More recently, they’ve been proclaiming we need a property tax overhaul in 2025!

According to Montana’s Revenue Department, homeowner property taxes across the state will rise approximately $200 million annually, on a permanent basis, because the legislature failed to adjust a simple statutory formula when home values rose. By failing to neutralize your tax rates, the Republicans-in-Charge (of both the executive and legislative branches) guaranteed their Tax-Montana-Homeowners-Program will arrive at your doorstep soon in the form of your 2023 property tax bill.

…read the rest

 

17 August 2023 — 1530 mdt

A quick and dirty measurement of a smoke plume

By James Conner

Located on the east side of the reservoir six miles southeast of Hungry Horse, the Ridge Fire (Facebook page) — a dangerous fire that, should winds drive it north, could threaten the Highway 2 corridor to West Glacier and Apgar Village — blew up two weeks ago, producing a towering column of smoke that was easily visible twenty miles to the west.

ridge_doris_700

Larger, easier to read image.

I saw the plume rising over the Swan Range as I crossed the Highway 93 overpass driving east on Two Mile Drive. I wish I could have gotten a photo, but there was no place to stop and cars behind me. Later, at Harbor Freight’s parking lot, I used my iPhone to photograph the plume. At that point, didn’t know which fire — there were several in the general vicinity — was producing the plume.

…read the rest

 

15 July 2023 — 1138 mdt

Montana homeowners shouldn’t have to pay $81 million/year
in new property taxes to the State now and into the future

Guest essay by Ann Brodsky

brodsky_ann_150v

I’m a lawyer and interested in politics. Fortunately, I’ve been able to stay out of Montana tax law for my career, except at a very high level. Is the tax fair? Does it hurt or help those who can least afford to pay? That’s what most Democrats ask.

This changed when I, like all other Montana homeowners, got my reappraisal notice from Governor Gianforte’s Department of Revenue and learned my property values had skyrocketed.

That, itself, wasn’t news to me, as I watched property sales go out the roof post-pandemic, when out-of-state folks with hefty incomes swooped into Montana and bought homes. Heck, they paid CASH for these homes, and at prices well over the asking price!

But what did this mean for my property taxes? I didn’t know.

So like other homeowners, I began paying attention. And I’m reeling!

…read the rest

 

14 July 2023 — 0515 mdt

Push Digital pushed Lindsey, Cindy, Marco, Trey, & Chuck

Tim Sheehy should fire his blundering
South Carolina based campaign consultants

By James Conner

sheehy_stern_R_200

Tim Sheehy

Republican senate candidate Tim Sheehy’s great weakness is his profound dearth of experience in electoral politics. That leaves him heavily dependent on Steve Daines and the national Republican senatorial campaign committee in choosing campaign consultants, and on those consultants after he chooses them.

To build his campaign website, and probably to do much more, he chose www.pushdigital.com, a full service political consultancy in South Carolina. Among Push’s clients are — the names are splashed atop the firm’s home page — nationally prominent Republicans Sen. Lindsey Grayham, SC; Sen. Marco Rubio, FL; former Rep. Trey Gowdy, SC; Sen. Chuck Grassley, IA; and Sen. Cindy-Hyde Smith, MS.

That’s an impressive list of, except for Iowan Grassley, southern politicians. One can see how hiring Push may have seemed a good idea. The firm’s description of itself eschews humility: “The place where the most talented team in politics shapes the future of digital communication.”

…read the rest

 

10 July 2023 — 1107 mdt

Only a special legislative session can prevent
Montanans from paying sky high state property taxes

By James Conner

We think of property taxes as local taxes because they fund local governments and schools, but we also pay a 101 mil state property tax — and our bill for that tax will go up 40 percent or more because of the recent reappraisals unless Montana’s legislature amends state law.

Here’s the background. In late November 2022, Montana’s Department of Revenue sent the legislature’s revenue interim committee a memorandum warning that the tax value neutral rate needed to be reduced to compensate for the increase in appraisals. The TVN is set in stone in statute and can be changed only by changing the Montana Codes Annotated, which requires legislation.

…read the rest

 

2 July 2023 — 1708 mdt

LBJ’s historic speech at Howard University

SCOTUS affirmative action ruling not likely to have
much effect on Montana's colleges and universities

By James Conner

Most colleges and universities — including Montana’s — admit almost everyone who applies to them (Pew Research Center). Unlike at Harvard and other elite institution, none of their students is admitted or rejected on the basis of race. But they were at Harvard and the University of North Carolina:

In Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. V. President and Fellows of Harvard College, SCOTUS ruled that:

…read the rest