3 November 2020

Montana voter turnout 1920 – 2020

 More Montana data   are available on Flathead Memo’s data download page.

Voter turnout can be measured several ways, but the most common measures are the (1) percentage of Registered Voters whose votes are counted, and (2) )percentage of the Voting Eligible Population whose votes are counted (the proper statistic is votes counted, a subset of ballots cast). Registered voters is a subset of the VEP, which is a subset of the Voting Age Population (age 18+), which is available from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Montana’s Secretary of State maintains a list of historical registered turnout, but not of VEP. Fortunately, VEP data are available from the U.S. Elections Project.

Unfortunately, VEP is a statewide statistic that’s not available for counties. But, there’s a workaround. In Montana, the VEP is approximately 98 percent of the VAP for 1972–2018. In the state’s largest counties (Yellowstone, Missoula, Gallatin, Flathead, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, and Silver Bow), the VEP can be estimated from the VAP.

For two reasons, VEP turnout is the best measure for elections policy:

1. Voter registrations lists contain deadwood, voters who are no longer active but have not been removed from the list. In 2000, for example, Montana’s number of registered voters exceeded the VEP.


2. Not all who are eligible to vote register. Imagine there is a Corncob County, with a VAP of 110,000, a VEP of 100,000 and 10,000 registered voters. If 9,000 Corncobbers vote, the registered voter turnout is 90 percent — but the VEP turnout is only nine percent.

Montana’s secretaries of state have not provided the VEP statistic, probably because the registered voters turnout statistic is higher and thus makes Montana, and Montana’s SectST, look better.