5 October 2020 — 0333 mdt

Election month begins Friday: what effect, if any, will
Trump’s bout with Mr. Covid have on Montana’s voters?

On Friday, 9 October, ballots will be mailed to absentee voters, and to all voters in 46 of Montana’s 56 counties. Many voters, fearful of a slowpoke U.S. Postal Service, will mail back their ballots within a few days of receiving them, effectively moving election day closer to early October than to 3 November.

Early voting helps candidates with polling leads by locking down the votes at the time of the lead. In Montana’s U.S. Senate election Republican Sen. Steve Daines leads Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock by approximately a point. In Montana’s gubernatorial election Republican U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte leads Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney by six points or so. Cooney’s predicament is considerably more fraught than Bullock’s, but neither man may be moving fast enough to grab the lead before the finish line is reached.

Will President Trump’s case of Covid-19, and his feckless conduct prior to catching the disease, cost him votes in Montana? Will it hurt Republicans down ballot?

It’s too early know. Much depends on the outcome of his illness. He has access to excellent medical care. Even if he becomes severely ill, certainly a possibility, he’s likely to survive: the case fatality rate for men his age is roughly three percent. Indeed, he may be released from Walter Reed later today (I’m skeptical he’ll be turned loose that soon).

Three of four Americans, according to an ABC News poll released Sunday (topline results), think Trump did not take the risk of contracting the coronavirus seriously enough, and that he failed to do enough to protect himself.

How many, if any, Republicans who think he did not take the disease seriously enough, and that he failed to do enough to protect himself, now will vote for Joe Biden and down ballot Democrats? Probably not many. His supporters have a seemingly infinite capacity to forgive his sins and shortcomings.

I think he’ll still carry Montana, and that his coattails may remain long enough to drag Daines and Gianforte across the finish line ahead of Bullock and Cooney.