17 November 2023 — 1103 mst

Updated 19 December

Rosendale is approaching put up or shut up
time for a U.S. Senate bid

By James Conner

Eastern district incumbent Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale, who lost to Jon Tester in 2018, has been hinting for months that he’d like another crack at Tester. Meanwhile, wealthy businessman and former naval commando Tim Sheehy, recruited and backed by Steve Daines, has filed for the nomination, is actively campaigning, and is closing the gap with Rosendale. Former secretary of state Brad Johnson, 72, announced recently that he’s seeking the GOP nomination. Libertarian Sid Daoud filed for the Senate earlier this week.

Rosendale, then running for the U.S. House, speaking to a Second Amendment Rally in Kalispell, in April, 2014.

So why is Rosendale teasing a run, but dithering and dawdling?

Here’s my theory. He’s waiting to see whether he can count on Democratic crossover votes in the primary.

Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte will run for a second term. Incumbent governors usually win re-election. Former long gun salesman and ardent conservationist Ryan Busse is running a spirited campaign for the Democrat’s gubernatorial primary.

Rosendale laboring to keep up with motorized Republicans in the 2016 county fair parade in Kalispell.

If Busse encounters only token primary competition, many Democrats will feel free to vote in the Republican primary for the candidate they think poses the least threat to Tester. That would be Rosendale.

A serious challenge to Busse — something Daines could engineer quietly — would keep Democrats home and deprive Rosendale, who lacks Trump’s support and is a mediocre fundraiser, of his crossover strategy.

Rosendale needs to make a decision soon. If he continues waiting, he’s conceding the nomination to Sheehy. I now think the odds he will run for re-election are even.

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 Update, 19 December 2023.  Over the weekend, Politico reported Rosendale continues teasing he’ll run for the Senate again — and that Daines, McConnell, Zinke, et al, are increasingly exasperated with him. But they’ve blocked him, and he’s madder than hell about that. Which is why he’s doing a fan dance that would have made Sally Rand proud.

But that’s all he’s doing. He won’t file for the Senate. He’ll play mind games with Daines and Sheehy until the last day of filing, when he’ll file for re-election to Montana’s safely Republican eastern congressional seat.

Thus far, only Kev Hamm (Helena) is running an active campaign for the Democratic nomination for Montana’s eastern district seat. It’s a good campaign. Kev learned much from his 2022 run for the PSC.