3 October 2018 — 1727 mdt
Recent polls show Tester with small but steady lead
An average of six polls conducted from mid-August to last week shows Sen. Jon Tester leading his Republican challenger, Matt Rosendale, 47.3 to 44.8 percent. The latest poll, by Public Policy Polling, reports Tester leading by six points, 49 to 45 percent. The poll sampled 594 likely voters. The sampling margin of error is four percent, and the probability that Tester has a ballot lead is 84 percent.
I’m still rating Tester v. Rosendale as a toss-up, but if more polls report leads for Tester, even very small leads, I’ll probably change my rating to leans Democratic.