9 September 2020 — 0534 mdt
The nation’s Covid-19 new cases curve
has bent downward; Montana’s has flattened,
and its effective reproduction rate is ≈ 1
The Covid-19 plots below deliver news for Montana that’s mostly good. Montana’s new cases per million persons rate now matches the national average, but the national curve now bends downward while Montana’s has only flattened. The flattening started in late July, suggesting that Gov. Bullock’s mask-up mandate is having a positive effect.
As students return to the classroom, and more businesses reopen, the number of close human interactions, especially indoors, where the risk of contracting the virus is the highest, has increased. If the mask-up mandate were ineffective, Montana’s Covid-19 new cases curve would have continued rising. Instead, it has flattened. It will bend downward when (a) nonessential activities such as football are canceled or postponed, and (b) many more people strictly comply with masking-up and social distancing.
Montana’s effective reproduction rate (Rt), once among the nation’s highest, has declined to approximately 1.0, which is very good news and further confirmation that Montana’s masking-up has slowed the spread of the virus. The following plot from rt.live displays the decline of Montana’s Rt.
