Enlarging the U.S. House of Representatives is the
best way for Montana to gain a second seat in the House

If the 2020 Census counts everyone in Montana, there’s a chance Montana will gain a second seat in the U.S. House when Congress is reapportioned next year. But I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that happening.

A second, and in my opinion, better, way to equip Montana with two seats in the U.S. House is increasing the number of representatives, which was set at 435 after the 1910 Census, the last time Congress increased the chamber’s size. I favor increasing the House to approximately 700 members. The New York Times’ America Needs a Bigger House illustrates how this might be done.

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Population changes in the 50 states,
D.C., and Puerto Rico, 2010–2019

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Don’t bet the ranch on a 2nd seat

U.S. Census Bureau releases 2019 population estimates —
Daily Kos & EDS predict MT may get 2nd U.S. House seat

The U.S. Census Bureau today released its population estimates for 2019 (net-est2019-01.xlsx). The bureau estimates that Montana’s population as of 1 July 2019 was 1,068,778, an increase of eight percent from 2010. The nation’s growth rate for 2010–2019 was six percent.

Assuming the U.S. House remains fixed at 435 members (Congress can increase that number to approximately 10,900), Montana, by growing slightly faster than the nation, may gain a second seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

At the Daily Kos blog, Stephen Wolf predicts a one seat gain for Montana. Election Data Services’ apportionment study for 2019 was published a few minutes ago with the headline “Montana Gains California’s seat.” In 2018, EDS predicted a one seat gain for Montana.

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Adult educational attainment in Montana, 1970–2015

Half a century ago, two-fifths of Montana’s adults were high school dropouts. By 2015, only seven of 100 were. That’s progress, although the distribution of that progress is not distributed evenly across the state. As one might expect, the least populated counties have the lowest levels of educational attainment, and there are communities such as Bozeman, Missoula, Whitefish, and Helena, where almost half the adult population holds a BA degree or higher.

Here’s a graph displaying the progress made at the state level over the last five decades. The spreadsheet that you can download contains county level data.

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If you give Mike Cooney your cell phone number,
he’ll give you lots and lots of robocalls

Such a bargain — and one that most Democrats probably do not know exists. That’s because it’s announced on his campaign’s website at the bottom of the page in almost impossible to read text (screenshot). But exist it does:

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Merry Christmas!

My home northwest of Kalispell is above 48° north latitude, and over 3,000 feet above sea level. Winters almost always are cold and white. But not this year. On Christmas Eve, I awakened to a fluffy snowscape that melted off by mid-afternoon. Today, my lawn, now a greenish brown, is clear of snow. Global warming? I think so.

I’m not standing down fully over the holidays, but I am switching into a blogging lite mode while I catch up on my reading, finish some research, and rest up for 2020. My best wishes to all who read Flathead Memo, and my thanks to the many readers who have sent words of support, steered me to stories, and pointed out typos and other errors. Their help makes Flathead Memo a better blog. — James Conner

The view northeast from my front porch an hour after sunrise on Christmas Eve.

Twenty-four hours later.

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Welcome to winter — and to global warming winter

Astronomical winter begins at 1719 MST today. Meterological winter began on 1 December. At meridian transit today, 1235 MST in Kalispell, the sun was 18.4 degrees above the horizon, the lowest transit of the year. The time of sunset has been getting later for several days, but so has the time of sunrise, which will continue until early January.

Seasons also are defined by temperature. For example, in Finland and Sweden, spring begins when the average temperature rises above freezing.

Yesterday’s high at Glacier International Airport (KGPI) was 51°F. Today’s high, at least 54°F. This is global warming winter.

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Bottle of wine, Pete’s doing fine

During last night’s Democratic debate, Pete Buttigieg caught hell from Elizabeth Warren, who accused him of sucking up to the wealthy by holding a high dollar fundraiser “…that was held in a wine cave full of crystals and served $900-a-bottle wine.”

Pete pleaded poverty.

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A majority of Montanans approve of Trump’s
job performance and oppose impeaching him

 Update, 1904 MST.  The U.S. House approved both articles of impeachment a few minutes ago.

There’s a very high probability that by the end of today, the U.S. House of Representatives will have voted to impeach President Trump. Although a slim majority (51 to 46 percent) of Americans support impeaching him, a three to two majority of Montanans oppose impeaching him.

Trump’s job approval rating is underwater nationwide, but it remains above water in Montana, where he received 56.5 percent of the popular vote in 2016.

These numbers should worry Montana’s Democrats. Unless public support for Trump collapses, and it might, Republicans will be in a very good position to win all statewide election in Montana in 2020.

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After 26 years, Corey Stapleton
finally makes his port of call in Israel

In 1993 Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton was a surface warfare officer on the USS John F. Kennedy, the last oil-powered American aircraft carrier built. He anticipated making a port of call in Israel (probably Haifa), but as he told the story in an email this morning, geopolitical considerations diverted his ship.

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More red hot fiddlin’ and fiddle-stickin’

Two old pros start this video with a virtuoso performance of the fiddler fiddlin’ and the group’s accordionist supplying percussion by whacking the fiddle with sticks. During the second number, there’s some great video of a woman in a red dress with white polkadots dancing ecstatically.

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Hot fiddlin’ for a cold Saturday morning

Pain d’Maïs loosely translates as Bread of Corn, or more likely, Cornbread. The band was cookin’ at Saulieu, France, in 2013. The weather in Saulieu must have been cookin’ as well, given the percussionist’s decision to strip to a wife-beater undershirt while he pounded the drums.

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The megabucks spent rebuilding Sperry Chalet
might have been better spent on Sun Road shuttles

Next summer you can stay in Sperry Chalet (reservations required), reconstructed after burning down in the 2017 Sprague Fire — but you may not be able to take the free shuttle to the trailhead. Yesterday the Flathead County Commission pulled out of the 2007 agreement with Glacier National Park to run the shuttles that carried 255,000 in 2019.

The details are in excellent reports by Tristan Scott at the Flathead Beacon, and Kianna Gardner at the Daily InterLake, and the Beacon has a link to the commission’s letter to GNP.

There’s a lot going on here, including the possibility that giant park concessionaire companies want to seize the shuttle action. In a moment, I'll offer some thoughts on the shuttle's future. But first, a note on costs.

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A civics lesson for the MT GOP & Don K.

If Congress kicks Trump out of the White House,
would Hillary Clinton become President?

Don Kaltschmidt

No. Removing a President through the impeachment process does not overturn an election. In fact, the question would be absurd were not Republicans making arguments inviting voters to conclude that impeachment equals an election reversal.

Yesterday, the Montana Republican Party issued a statement conflating impeachment with election reversal:

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Empeachment or impeachment?

A reader with a profound knowledge of the history of England, and of the English language, sent me a one-word email message, “Empeachment,” knowing I could not resist digging up information on what I reckoned was an old and obsolete spelling of “impeachment.” Being too lazy to drive to Flathead Valley Community College, where the library probably has access to the Oxford Dictionary of the English Language, I conducted a few online searches, then consulted my copy of Webster’s Third New International Dictionary.

“Empeachment” dates back to at least the sixteenth century, and probably several centuries earlier. Of more interest is when “impeachment” became the preferred spelling. That date eluded me, but our constitution, written in the late eighteenth century, used “impeach,” which suggests that “impeach” was the preferred spelling by the mid-eighteenth century, when the constitution’s authors were educated.

Here’s Webster’s definition:

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Her husband’s legal troubles imperil Melissa Romano’s
campaign for Montana’s superintendent of schools

Democrat Melissa Romano’s campaign for Montana’s Office of Public Instruction was damaged severely by this week’s revelation that her husband, Eric Lehman, is expected to plead guilty to charges of possessing dangerous drugs, including LSD, cocaine, and methamphetamine.

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Today is Tin-Cupping Tuesday — give if you can,
but don't let the beggars make you feel guilty

“Giving Tuesday,” the first Tuesday after Thanksgiving, was invented in 2011 by a thirsty for money Maryland theatre company. Its operating premise is that after spending the Friday after Thanksgiving buying gifts for kin and friends, shoppers have a moral obligation to donate to worthy causes, and should be reminded of that moral obligation by designating the next Tuesday as a universally recognized day for writing checks to charities. It’s an effective fundraising technique.

It’s also a considerable annoyance. My morning email traffic was dominated by messages from nonprofits, and politicians, reminding me that today is a sacred day for giving, that giving is a moral obligation, and hey, sinner, we do good things, so Buddy will you send a dime? Giving will cleanse your soul. Don’t be selfish.

I agree. Don’t be selfish. But don’t be stupid, either. “Giving Tuesday” is just another gimmick for raising money. If you send a dime, you’ll be thanked and asked to send another and another and another. The asking — the shameless, sophisticated, begging — never ceases. It’s no more moral to make a charitable contribution today than it is on any other day, and it’s not sinful to keep your checkbook closed because your highest priority and moral obligation is staying solvent for the good of your family. You won’t go to Hell if you keep your greenbacks in your wallet instead of depositing them in a multi-million-dollar budget nonprofit’s tin cup.

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Woodland Park needs better security to protect the
Community Spirit Monument from vandalism

Love Lives Here in the Flathead reports that over the Thanksgiving holiday, the Community Spirit Monument in Kalispell’s Woodland Park was vandalized. In October, the monument also was vandalized, with benches and signs damaged.

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Dems reject governors, embrace mayors

Bullock folds tent, leaves Presidential Trail

Two-term Montana Governor Steve Bullock today announced he’s suspending his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, reiterating that although he’s returning to Montana, he’s not running for the U.S. Senate seat now occupied by Republican Steve Daines.

Starting late, Bullock never got any real traction despite his solid record of winning two gubernatorial and one attorney general elections in a state carried by the last three Republican candidates for president. A tall, handsome, centrist in his early fifties, the classic model of a serious presidential candidate, he was rejected, or ignored, by Democratic primary voters who are seeking to vindicate identity politics by nominating the candidate least like Trump.

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Potential impeachment trial juror Daines is running ads supporting Trump and opposing impeachment

Suppose you’ve been called to jury duty, and may be selected to be a juror in a trial. Suppose further that you’ve read the newspapers, trust your gut, and have concluded the defendant is not guilty. You believe he’s being persecuted by the police and the prosecution. Therefore, before a trial is held, indeed before the grand jury hands up its indictment, you buy internet ads asking for help in keeping the accused from being tried and convicted. Would the court be amused?

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